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But first we have to get through this

Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11.

Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. In the wake of the frontal passage, highs tomorrow and Friday will likely peak in the upper 70s. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s from the weekend through the middle of next week. Some rain is possible Saturday night into early Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -19.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.175 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I see all his tweets . I’m not sure he’s actually in CT. Notice Ineedsnow didn’t respond

isn't that correlation only true during La Nina?

He lives in CT. Only posts about cold that will never happen and canes.

I had to replace my oil tank last year.. the $5000 bucks would have been better spent on converting to propane. That has remained relatively stable. I burn wood and pellets, normally keep the thermostats at 64 as a fall back. Fortunately I only burn 400 to 500 gallons a year. Too add salt to wounds, I also drive diesel truck. Just saw 6.10 for the first time in a while.

Well, enough sprinkles to dot the deck around 6 pm, a 'T' I guess......

We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency?

Was a hot one today. Had to meet our instructor and classmates in Rahway for a run on a track inspection car. Was cool and raining in the am. Wasn't expecting the heat when we got back.

Record low ACE to date

What I expect this winter

My father used to work an Athol in a ship building factory. (pronounced while holding my tongue)

Cluds looked pretty cool today.. not the greatest pic though

Heating oil prices up 7.35% just today. Supposed to jump more tomorrow. Going to be some low thermostats this winter.

He’s the sacrificial lamb

I think that’s Ineedsnow . Seriously . Have thought that for awhile

Got popped by a couple bigguns today while out an about and thought we might've gotten ourselves into a similar situation. Fortunately, it was apparently just some cat-sized squirrels taking aim at us from on high with the plethora of gargantuan acorns.

I didn’t even know who Matt Blood was, but him no longer with the team reads to me like the O’s aren’t going to make the appropriate front office changes.

Cool El Niño summers are a thing of the past

Is there a dude named Liam on here from CT?

It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol