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Hopefully that would set us up for the 6 week reload right around the holidays.

Big ole ocean storm off our coast. Big ole ocean storm moving towards southern California. I don't care what JB says or any computer. The signs of a very exciting winter are definitely starting to emerge imo.

White oaks are super underrated. I know there's not a lot of them in New England. We have lots here in Maryland. The thing about the oaks and hickory is that they turn late. I call it second peak. White oaks get auburn and purple. The reds oaks get bronze, and the hickory trees get gold. I live how the backdrop is gray from bare softwood trees during second peak. Oaks are the king of the forest.

Watch it. He does a great job explaining the winter. Also watch weather with Travis.

Gotta love having to move the Y axis. 12c is just absurd. The amount of extra heat energy contained in that will move the entire global temperature up again. .

different planet, different, much weaker/incomparable nino ensembles mild into november maybe one of us gets lucky at some point but we should all learn to embrace the pacific because it's coming

39 upon leaving the home front this morning. Not much more can be said about this perfect week.

Don’t feel bad I know the team I’m rooting for and am quite use to how bad they are lol

My new spot here gets pretty impressive radiational cooling inversions unlike back on the Long Island South Shore. One of the more interesting effects on a handful of occasions was the marsh gasses getting trapped under the inversions. Probably the most pungent smell that you can imagine. As my area has a great wetlands habitat which transitions into rolling hills with in less than a mile.

The BOM RONI values in the East getting close to +6 are more in line with the ONI numbers.

OISST RONI up to over +2.8C

The modoki-style forcing out near the Dateline following the shutdown of the MJO 5 forcing which drove the record warmth in December. The hand-off of the forcing from the MC to the DL caused the whole pattern to invert from December to January. This allowed the NP low to back off in the Pacific from late January into early February.

Yeah, in Phoenix Brrrr... Good for the emerging drought I always trust the 40 day outlook Truer words Truer words Nah, more fun with overcast skies and a chill in the air. Water freezes at 32 (google it) What's a DISTRUPTION? No no no Where there's a will... This is a made up word

I know this is out of region, but interesting to me, and perhaps some others. Something to watch over the next 34-36 hours is an extremely rare severe outbreak potential over Central Arizona. From what I've heard and read, this is only the second time ever that the region was under an enhanced severe risk.

Anthony, Maybe this person saw this latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada: No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August! Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other Feb forecasts back to the start of the CFSv2: 2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can: 2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can 2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can 2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can 2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom ‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can ’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can ’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can ’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can ’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can ’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can ’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can ’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can ’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can ’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can ’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can ’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can ’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can ’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can ’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can ’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can ————————————— Analysis of above: -Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases! -The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27. -BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE! -Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16). —————— In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.