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It's a quick hitter and dead.

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared.

My cousin lives on Pine Island, Florida. She was actually glad there was a strong El-Nino. She knows the weather like me. She is tired of the hurricanes.

Sometimes we get spoiled by the symmetry of perfect monster canes. I’m one who marvels at their beauty! I can tell you that as someone who sits in the crosshairs of this system, regardless of dry air & especially shear…I’m still quite fidgety tonight! .

Next recon will be telling.

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old.

Latest hurricane ever!

Today's Highs PHL: 80 ACY: 79 EWR: 78 JFK: 78 BLM: 77 New Brnswck: 77 LGA: 76 TEB: 76 ISP: 76 TTN: 75 NYC: 73

This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up.

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts

In this corner we have the ever-strengthening superrrr niñooo! In the other we have the shear challenger--Isaaaaías!!!

Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that

God this is an ugly looking storm. Am I the only one?

Totally agree, the window is shrinking but there is still time for some more fuel. .

With that deep ring of convection…

Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight?

Definite first freeze potential D10-11 on several runs today for NW burbs and IAD

Maybe just Sunday night. Should be better late morning Monday. Hopefully.

I think so

What's the consensus on late Sunday/ Monday and early next week? Ass? Would be a shame to waste any of Octobe.r

Jeez, sorry for not responding or seeing this until now. My wife and I made some moves this summer and we were at 750ft in Stowe Village... but we finally cashed in on the location, sold our townhome/condo for 4 times what we paid for it back in 2012 and rolled that equity into a house about 10 minutes outside the village. We were ready to leave the village. We are now only 10 minutes away in a neighboring valley at 1,100ft tucked in closer to the Spine. With higher terrain on three sides of us, we seem to radiate quite well (multiple frosts so far), but I will say the daytime temps don't seem to get up nearly as much as the larger valley from the Village out towards the ASOS. We'll see how the winter goes, but I'm interested to see what the differences are compared to over in the village.

Idk…I’ve been a believer in GDM and the ensembles get bullish tonight on the peak. LF intensity is anyone’s guess but I’m probably with you on 90-95mph at landfall. Love me some tropical sunsets. Be safe down there. I’m not chasing this one (wife’s birthday lol) New one should be out there in a few hours. Perfect timing imo.