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Wow good morning Erin.

6 mb drop in the last 50 minutes.

Low of only 73. Looks like some relief is on the way for the start of the work week.

145mph 135mb

Unsurprisingly, a double wind maxima showing up now

On cue 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.6°N 62.0°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 145 mph

Latest dropsonde found a 936mb pressure w/ 14kt wind. The last VDM was at 942mb. Expect a more powerful storm at the 8am advisory…

Where’s @ineedsnow?

Pressure dropping like a rock with some big FL and SFMR winds at the center.

Rapid intensification of yore Go to bed with a 1, wake up to a 4.

She’s a beaut, Clark

If it can avoid an ERC. Exceptional pressure falls

5:50 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.6°N 61.5°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

Erin's a regular smoke show this morning. Impressive intensification overnight.

Not uncommon for strong hurricanes to continue trucking along more to the South than expected. Once it feels the weakness in the ridge, it will sharply turn right, probably not much West of forecast

OI LASS WE COULD DO WITH SOME MORE INNIT

How do you rate Erin right now lad

Eyewall really contracting in the visible . Might make a run at cat 5

I like how NHC has Erin moving WNW but the past few hours she's been going due west. That's without wobbling or stair stepping.

My guess is that the stronger sea breeze in recent years has been also playing a role reducing the 90° days relative to the increases at other areas. Stronger sea breeze circulation South Shore of NYC and LI. Plus there have been several equipment moves at JFK since 1948. So it appears that the observations prior to 1995 were at warmer parts of the airport a little further from Jamaica Bay. Making it easier to record 90° days further from the sea breeze. The current location of the ASOS since 1995 is right on the water. JFK is so large that there is a significant difference in temperatures closer to the Ozone Park side than the current ASOS near the cooler 5 towns right on the Bay. See the full location history for this station using the Historical Observing Metadata Repository. Latitude Longitude History LATITUDE LONGITUDE PRECISION BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ 40.63915 -73.7639 DDddddd 1996-05-01 Present 40.63915 -73.76401 DDddddd 1995-05-01 1996-05-01 40.65 -73.78333 DDMM 1948-07-01 1995-05-01 40.65 -73.783333 DDMM 1948-06-01 1948-07-01 Elevation History ELEVATION ELEVATION TYPE BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ 2.7 GROUND 1996-05-01 Present 3.4 GROUND 1995-05-01 1996-05-01 4.9 GROUND 1982-01-01 1995-05-01 10.1 GROUND 1958-01-01 1982-01-01 9.1 GROUND 1951-01-01 1958-01-01 6.1 GROUND 1948-07-01 1951-01-01 4.9 GROUND 1948-06-01 1948-07-01 9.8 BAROMETRIC 1996-05-01 Present Relocation History RELOCATION DATE¹ .3 mi S 1957-12-18 Location Descriptions DESCRIPTION BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ E SIDE JFK INTL AP MIDWAY BTWN RWYS 4L-22R/4R-22L AND RWYS 13L-31R/13R-31L 1995-06-27 Present ROOF OF INTL ARRIVALS BLDG WITHIN AND 1 MI S OF PO AT JFK AIRPORT 1991-06-13 1995-06-27 0 OF PO 1948-06-01 1948-07-01 Topography Descriptions TOPOGRAPHY BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ JAMAICA BAY WITH NUMEROUS SMALL MARSH ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN IS 5 MILES TO THE SOUTH SEPARATED BY A BARRIER SAND PENINSULA HOME TO THE ROCKAWAYS. TERRAIN AT AIRPORT COMPLEX IS FLAT WITH MUCH OF IT SANDFILL. HEAVILY POPULATED WITH CONGESTED CAR TRAVEL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. 1996-05-01 Present JAMAICA BAY W NUMEROUS SMALL MARSH ISLANDS. TERRAIN FLAT AND SANDFILL. HEAVILY POPULATED AND CONJESTED CAR TRAVEL TO N AND E 1991-06-13 1996-05-01

53.9° Chilly

F. CLOSEDG. C7

Just upgraded to cat 4