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67 degrees this morning . Some rain showers on the way. Need to keep that grass growing

498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days.

498dm in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. Continuing the warm season theme from 2024 and 2025.

Must be one heck of an El Nino pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.

Wow, actually was 200k too low Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

The off again, on again UKMET is now off again with a Gulf TC fwiw.

5th CFSv2 AAM run in a row with an extreme/historic level of 4+ being progged starting Sep 19th! It looks like it’s going to actually happen, folks! My inner weenie is genuinely excited:

Lol at tonight's GFS 00z operational. I made a post during the previous week that modeling of any potential CAG system was going to be rather chaotic until something actually resolved. That has definitely been the case. Still, if something develops and gets in the right position at the right time, potential exists for a powerful system given the potential favorable upper environment that should evolve over the GOM next week. If nothing else, it's something to watch. Mind you, though the UKMet and GFS suites continue flirting with a system, the Euro suites haven't been bothered yet. I should add it's not that Euro doesn't have the CAG there, it just transfers that energy or resulting vorticity into the EPAC instead of trying to resolve something in the WCARIB or GOM.

The pattern of Lucy pulling the football away continues for most of the Denver Metro, with promising forecasts dwindling and rain always 2-4 days away. DEN has a trace of rain this month so far. My house has 0.11".

Today's Highs: TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 83 PHL: 83 TTN: 82 EWR: 81 BLM: 81 LGA: 79 ACY: 78 NYC: 77 JFK:*76 ISP: 76

Worth noting that despite the lower odds, Invest 98L has seen an uptick in support from ensemble guidance. I've always thought this one had a chance in this region, and tonight we're seeing a flare up of convection near the center. We'll see if that continues. Currently it is meandering into a region of significantly lower shear and warmer SSTs. Just enough of a window for something to pop...

Awesome. Have fun! Were you able to score a half dome permit?

lol, lows in the 30s are not going to happen. I can see lows in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, but no way are going to drop below 40. That hasn't happened in September in a very long time, and it would at or near record territory. Heck, we haven't even gone in the 30s in October in recent years. (The last time was Halloween weekend 2020.)

Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.

the mid-atl forum is really great, i'm glad to be able to discuss with and learn from such knowledgable and down to earth posters

Same here. Along the shore is 2 weeks later than inland. Mid Oct here, with early Oct peak inland. Maples go first, and should be peaking in a about 10 days or so inland.