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I like trying to make connections and I can't help but feel that the warming of the West Pac and the West Atl is causing high pressures in the western basins to migrate further north causing a feedback mechanism that is resulting in these stuck patterns. I think this will only change when we see a massive melting of the ice caps and an influx of cooler water into these basins, which, ironically enough might reset everything to the old pattern (at a higher level.) Nature does self regulate through feedback mechanisms even though it might do it in the way we want it to.

91/73. Yeah baby.

Why not? It’s not far from Bristol.

The exact reason that the warming is manifesting in these new stuck weather patterns that have become common in recent years may not be fully understood yet. But we can still use them as an aid to our long range winter and summer seasonal forecasts. Once a season begins and the same patterns emerge as recent years, then it helps gain confidence in the model forecasts going forward. So if the models show a big over the top warm up like today, then it’s a match for our new recent climo. This becomes useful in comparing it to what the longer range medium and and seasonals are showing.

Unexpected .27 of rain this morning.

Again my station is not part of the data set for Chester County PA!

Thanks Chris, is there a specific reason these over the top patterns are happening? Is it linked to what we are seeing with the western basins in the Oceans warming up more quickly too (it's happening both in the Western Pacific and the Western Atlantic.) I noticed that Western Europe has been getting a lot of extreme heat the last few years just like Western North America has been getting. London reached 104 F (40 C) for the first time in recorded history a few years ago.

We strive for accuracy!!!

That's why I say to use the total historical data, not the previous 30 year average from 10 years ago?

I agree! I temporarily lived closer to the coast late last summer and got to visit a lot. Would have chosen to permanently live there, but I wanted a little more snow so I ended up settling a little further north. Possibly no beach visits for me this summer. Sad.

okie dokie

88/72. gross

NWS (National Weather Service) siting standards are intended to be consistent with the surrounding area, particularly when it comes to Cooperative Observer Program (Coop) stations. This means the site should be representative of the weather conditions experienced in that specific location. Siting guidelines aim to ensure accurate and representative weather data collection. Not that it matters as the data excludes my backyard for climate comparisons. But,, as you can tell with the satellite photo I am consistent with the surrounding terrain. Plenty of trees but not many houses.

What I assumed to have been brown rats that ate my carrot crop last Fall turns out to be Eastern Meadow Vole. I've got a lot of them. They carry ticks and will hurt the garden again if I don't deal with them. I'm not dropping rodenticide, and trapping proved ineffective last year. They have a 20-25 day gestation period and once you trap one in their run, they stop using that run. Other than predators (hawks, ermine, snakes), is there anything effective on these things? Anyone had experience with them?

Weeks 3-4 look good for heat too. They also use a less wishy-washy scheme without the near normal buffer zone, so it has a true 60-70 percent chance of above normal in the northern half of Pennsylvania and 55-60 percent in the south.

LOL!!!You as usual are not following forky....my backyard data has zero to do with the data in this discussion....

Thank God I pay for the most expensive station that has fan aspiration to correct for solar errors of surrounding stations!!

A newer climate model that was first run back in 2013 is doing a pretty good job so far. It forecast the increase in summer ridging near the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies and another area to the east of New England. This has been the main summer pattern since 2018. It gives us these over the top warm ups. It has been a reliably warmer than normal summer pattern for us. As the only slightly cooler summer here was in 2023. Every other summer finished up warmer than average. But the increased onshore flow with a ridge east of New England holds down the big increase in 100° days that some of the older climate models were indicating. We need a strong 500mb positive height anomaly closer to the Great Lakes like from 2010 to 2013 to get a high number of 100° days from around NYC to the east. This is why JFK continues with the longest under 100° day streak on record. The Euro summer forecast is very similar to the general pattern since 2018 Similar to summer pattern since 2018 Resembling new climate model forecast made in 2013

it seems like this whole thread is based on faulty data. sad

the coldest one. hmm

i mean a photo of the station and its surroundings

right on schedule. lol

It's near 80 here even without the sun. Weird thing going on in my trees a large swarm of sea gulls are hovering over them and even sitting on them picking at something. I think they're eating the fruit-- it's a mulberry tree.

anybody have an invite to the phillywx discord or know if it's still active?

https://www.davisinstruments.com/products/wireless-vantage-pro2-with-24-hour-fan-aspirated-radiation-shield-and-weatherlink-console?srsltid=AfmBOoqreXwwKT3tJn1oDiyLA18c4VSrMbFST9-Ksrm0c6r59Kk6tbem