The Iceman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Those wxbell maps are overdone. Especially for the second part. ... not saying you're wrong but why do you say that? I see all levels below freezing as the main precip moves in, and .5-.75 precip in those areas with all areas below freezing. the second map includes the first part of the storm so I don't really think they are that overdone.. again please correct me where I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z ECM 7-9" March 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GGEM for SE PA would be a brief 1-2" front-end thump Tuesday night followed by several hours of freezing rain, light rain/dry slot Wednesday and Wednesday night, 6-10" of heavy concrete snow Thursday, and single digit lows Thursday night. Potentially crazy week ahead for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 A more realistic GFS map (2.5=0.10, 5=0.20, 7.5=0.30, 10=0.40, 15=0.60, 20=0.80, ETC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 ... not saying you're wrong but why do you say that? I see all levels below freezing as the main precip moves in, and .5-.75 precip in those areas with all areas below freezing. the second map includes the first part of the storm so I don't really think they are that overdone.. again please correct me where I'm missing something. Well, its NOT cold at all levels as the precip moves in. At 0Z as the next wave is starting to move in, its still warm. So, lets take PHL: Still warm at 0Z. Cools off by 6Z. 0.25" has fallen since 0Z, but lets assume its evenly distributed, which means half of it wasn't snow, so we're down to, say 0.13". 6Z-12Z another 0.32". 0.45" total as snow. Just 0.05" after that. So, best guess is about a half inch liquid falls as snow. Now, lets take, say, MIV: It just cools to 0C through the column at 6Z, so we'll assume everything before then is sleet or rain. So, after that point, MIV gets 0.61" liquid. Now, here's the problem: WxBell maps show about 10" on a 10:1 ratio. In other words, its algorithm is assuming an inch falls as snow. Which is not the case. What it means is that the algorithm assumed the 0.38" that fell from 0Z to 6Z at MIV was snow because the column just barely cooled to 0C or less at 6Z. So, that's just not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I am sure we can lock this in very early on Monday morning...the main event is Wednesday night and Thursday what can go wrong? Haven't we learned this year?....However I'm optimistic we have not had a system since November where cold air is actually filtering in instead of leaving...although we play all cards Tuesday to Thursday interesting week indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6z GFS says no go. 6z nam says game on Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 i need rain between 2am-7am on wednesday for phl am flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 For our next "event" Wxsim has snow arriving by 4pm tomorrow temp 31.4 mixing pretty quickly with IP with about 1 or 2" falling as solid then ZR with a total of 0.59" w.e. with temps below freezing then rain 0.20" with temps topping out at 41.4 It of course does not see the post frontal wave to follow....wait for next couple runs for it to catch on. Only a coating to an inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wednesday night - Thursday storm on the NAM delivers over 1.5 inches of precip. Not sure how much is frozen. But it's pretty far out for the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12Z nam total snow. Most of it Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow that would be epic. Small chance of verifying imo. Unless the gfs starts trending towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is too high on QPF and likely too far north as well. Still, this looks like it could be a solid event Wednesday night into Thursday for pretty much everyone in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 No sure it will trend too much south since there is a SE ridge present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow that would be epic. Small chance of verifying imo. Unless the gfs starts trending towards it. If you ask me the NAM has does as well this winter as the other models which isn't saying much. I will concede that it is usually the model with the highest qpf but that's nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At least the model shows the threat. No doubt we'll dive into the specifics as we get closer. Key point today, 12z guidance shows this threat with cold front getting hung up and loads of moisture riding along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 im no expert but nailing down frontal passage snow amounts doesn't seem easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z gfs, snow at 63hr, moving out 84hr. south jersey jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Major shift north on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z GFS everybody jackpots in SEPA with 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z GFS everybody jackpots in SEPA with 10-12" and of course i will be away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 and of course i will be away That is a tough break. But then again we know how 72hr jackpots have worked out this winter, shave them down by 75% in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That is a tough break. But then again we know how 72hr jackpots have worked out this winter, shave them down by 75% in the end yup, C-3", expect cape may = 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Front end, RGEM and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 yup, C-3", expect cape may = 6-10" Snow maps have a sharp gradient down to 6" northern burbs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 cmc, snow 72hr, moving out 87hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Just can't have an event without model wars this winter. UKMET is uber juiced and far NW like NAM but warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 With GEFS NW of the OP the belief that this one will end up SE is slipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 things are looking solid for the area, general 6"+ depending on setup. euro up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I really like PHL for this storm. Even the toasty Ukie shows a flip to snow at the last panel with likely more precip to follow, I'd have to believe it would have shown at least 4-6" for the city. I almost don't think we have to worry if this trends, since NW means more juice, and everyone will flip to snow regardless of where this tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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