538 replies to this topic

[Hoosier]

Ajdos, on 17 February 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

I don't know, but February might end up on the cold and snow side? Anyone else agree??

I doubt the positive temp anomalies can be overcome in most places. As far as snow, we'll see.

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 17 February 2012 - 01:17 PM, said:

I'm in the process of sending out an email to them right now about Feb 11. They do make oopsies like that from time to time, but usually it's corrected within 3-4 days. If we're going to go for the futility record, we should at least make it legitimate. Although, even if they plug in 2.2cm of snow, that's still by far the lowest total in the city, and likely inaccurate.

Thats great, thanks man. Its kind of odd that YYZ saw only 2.2cm whereas every area surrounding it saw atleast 2"...did the guy that measures fail math or something lol?

Its kind of strange that the year after YYZ commenced we had the snowiest Winter on record and no Winter since then has beaten it but several came really close including, 42-43, 49-50, 59-60, 64-65, 70-71, 77-78 and 07-08. I have a hard time trusting EC's numbers for YYZ.

Ready for 1-2" tomorrow, lol

[Snowstorms]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 06:14 PM, said:

I doubt the positive temp anomalies can be overcome in most places. As far as snow, we'll see.

The latest weeklies look really warm in March, any thoughts on that? The AO seems to be going positive along with a tanking PNA. The MJO may also propagate thru phases 3-5 later in the month and its kind of strange, despite the MJO being in phases 8,1,2 recently....its stil been way above normal. Unbelieveable.

Next time we see an Alaskan Vortex, I'm booking a flight to Alaska right away.

[Hoosier]

Snowstorms, on 17 February 2012 - 06:18 PM, said:

The latest weeklies look really warm in March, any thoughts on that? The AO seems to be going positive along with a tanking PNA. The MJO may also propagate thru phases 3-5 later in the month and its kind of strange, despite the MJO being in phases 8,1,2 recently....its stil been way above normal. Unbelieveable.

Next time we see an Alaskan Vortex, I'm booking a flight to Alaska right away.

Why doubt it at this point, especially given the indices look to trend even less favorable.  Perhaps parts of the western/far northern tier can stay on the cool side if that pattern sets up but that won't really help most.

The 10th-13th were below average here.  I guess that's all we're going to get out of the favorable MJO.

[Snowstorms]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 06:25 PM, said:

Why doubt it at this point, especially given the indices look to trend even less favorable. Perhaps parts of the western/far northern tier can stay on the cool side if that pattern sets up but that won't really help most.

The 10th-13th were below average here. I guess that's all we're going to get out of the favorable MJO.

Its astounding...none of this was expected. Even the worst of all Winters had atleast one decently sized storm to track whereas this year, none.

With the -PNA setting up, I'd suspect a return of cold anomalies West of Manitoba later in the month with building warm anomalies come March across the East. Lets see how this affects the severe wx season.

Seems like the battle between East and West is winding down as the MJO propagates back into favorbale phases for La Nina development.

http://www.atmos.alb...om.30.5S-5N.png

[daddylonglegs]

Should be interesting...I'm leaving all my plants (seedlings) out in my greenhouse tonite (unheated/6 mil plastic)... It was 84F earlier in there today, but right now its sitting at 40F (temps inside drop like a rock after sun goes down)... Low looks around 23F here ...inside maybe upper 20Fs...? I covered them with an extra blanket.

[hm8]

Could someone tell me the last time Detroit had this few of days with snow on the ground? Or point me in the direction where I could find this out myself

[michsnowfreak]

Ajdos, on 17 February 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

I don't know, but February might end up on the cold and snow side? Anyone else agree??

DTW needs 4.4" more snow to hit the normal Feb snowfall of 10.4", so thats possible, but with a temp departure currently of +5.0F, I dont see a chance the month ends up colder than normal. Now, if you mean Feb will end on a cold, snowy note...then yes, I do agree that is a distinct possibility.

[michsnowfreak]

hm8, on 17 February 2012 - 09:53 PM, said:

Could someone tell me the last time Detroit had this few of days with snow on the ground? Or point me in the direction where I could find this out myself

Its hard to determine because we are at a point in the season (Feb 17th) with quite a bit of time left with an unknown amount of snowcover days. But it has certainly happened before.

I have Detroits snowcover sincer 1908, so in the last 103 years, here is the top 10 most and top 10 least days with 1"+ snowcover in a season. DTW has had 19 days this season with 1"+ snowcover, so even if not one more day had snowcover (which is extremely, extremely unlikely), it would only tie for 7th barest winter since 1908.

01.) 91 days (1977-78) *** 01.) 10 days (1936-37)
02.) 89 days (1947-48) *** 02.) 11 days (1931-32)
03.) 89 days (1981-82) *** 03.) 12 days (1918-19)
04.) 86 days (1966-67) *** 04.) 15 days (1982-83)
05.) 85 days (1911-12) *** 05.) 16 days (1952-53)
06.) 84 days (1909-10) *** 06.) 17 days (1948-49)
07.) 82 days (1958-59) *** 07.) 19 days (1979-80)
08.) 81 days (1962-63) *** 08.) 19 days (1988-89)
09.) 80 days (2010-11) *** 09.) 20 days (1941-42)
10.) 79 days (1929-30) *** 10.) 21 days (1943-44)

[michsnowfreak]

And DAFF to answer your question in the locked Feb thread...Detroits latest ever measurable snow was 5.0" on May 21/22, 1883. Of course that was a fluke to say the least. There was also the infamous 6.0" on May 9, 1923. But realistically, Id say mid-April is when you can put the salt away. Last year we had a 1-2" snowfall on April 18th, was gone by evening.

[Ajdos]

michsnowfreak, on 17 February 2012 - 10:14 PM, said:

DTW needs 4.4" more snow to hit the normal Feb snowfall of 10.4", so thats possible, but with a temp departure currently of +5.0F, I dont see a chance the month ends up colder than normal. Now, if you mean Feb will end on a cold, snowy note...then yes, I do agree that is a distinct possibility.

THAT'S WHAT I MENT..MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THAT HUGE SYSTEM IN THE 6-10 DAY RANGE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT..

[mnweather]

michsnowfreak, on 17 February 2012 - 10:28 PM, said:

And DAFF to answer your question in the locked Feb thread...Detroits latest ever measurable snow was 5.0" on May 21/22, 1883. Of course that was a fluke to say the least. There was also the infamous 6.0" on May 9, 1923. But realistically, Id say mid-April is when you can put the salt away. Last year we had a 1-2" snowfall on April 18th, was gone by evening.

What's the earliest trace of snowfall Detroit has had?

[hm8]

michsnowfreak, on 17 February 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

Its hard to determine because we are at a point in the season (Feb 17th) with quite a bit of time left with an unknown amount of snowcover days. But it has certainly happened before.

I have Detroits snowcover sincer 1908, so in the last 103 years, here is the top 10 most and top 10 least days with 1"+ snowcover in a season. DTW has had 19 days this season with 1"+ snowcover, so even if not one more day had snowcover (which is extremely, extremely unlikely), it would only tie for 7th barest winter since 1908.

01.) 91 days (1977-78) *** 01.) 10 days (1936-37)
02.) 89 days (1947-48) *** 02.) 11 days (1931-32)
03.) 89 days (1981-82) *** 03.) 12 days (1918-19)
04.) 86 days (1966-67) *** 04.) 15 days (1982-83)
05.) 85 days (1911-12) *** 05.) 16 days (1952-53)
06.) 84 days (1909-10) *** 06.) 17 days (1948-49)
07.) 82 days (1958-59) *** 07.) 19 days (1979-80)
08.) 81 days (1962-63) *** 08.) 19 days (1988-89)
09.) 80 days (2010-11) *** 09.) 20 days (1941-42)
10.) 79 days (1929-30) *** 10.) 21 days (1943-44)

Thanks. I knew that we we probably weren't on pace for a top ten worst, I was more just curious when the last time was because I know we've been so spoiled as of late. I've heard a lot of people complaining that this is one of the worst winters they've ever witnessed (irl that is, not on here so much), and I just have to keep reminding them (and myself) that it probably seems a lot worse than it really is because of how good the past decade has been. This winter has been solidly bad, but no really not close to record setting.

[dmc76]

2 to 3" reported in Saginaw county tonight

[michsnowfreak]

hm8, on 17 February 2012 - 10:51 PM, said:

Thanks. I knew that we we probably weren't on pace for a top ten worst, I was more just curious when the last time was because I know we've been so spoiled as of late. I've heard a lot of people complaining that this is one of the worst winters they've ever witnessed (irl that is, not on here so much), and I just have to keep reminding them (and myself) that it probably seems a lot worse than it really is because of how good the past decade has been. This winter has been solidly bad, but no really not close to record setting.

That is SO true, and i can think of no better way to sum up this winter than your last sentence. This A bad combo of how good the past decade has been and how extreme predictions were foe this winter. As you said, this winter has been solidly bad, but not close to record setting. Can we make the top 10 barest winters since 1908? Yeah, if we get 2 days or less with snow on the ground from here on out. Not likely at all.

[Ajdos]

dmc76, on 17 February 2012 - 10:55 PM, said:

2 to 3" reported in Saginaw county tonight

Yeah that snow is very convective up there....

[Ajdos]

What a joke..this convective looking cell moved over my area and a period of very heavyyyy







RAIN.....

[michsnowfreak]

mnweather, on 17 February 2012 - 10:39 PM, said:

What's the earliest trace of snowfall Detroit has had?

Earliest trace of snow: Oct 1, 1974
Earliest measurable snow: 0.2" on Oct 12, 2006

Latest trace of snow: May 31, 1910
Latest measurable snow: 2.7" on May 22, 1883*

Latest first trace of snow: Dec 16, 1998
Latest first measurable snow: 0.1" on Dec 29, 1998**

Earliest last trace of snow: Mar 11, 1946
Earliest last measurable snow: 0.7" on Feb 27, 1946 & 0.1" on Feb 27, 2010***

*Storm total 5.0" on May 21/22, 1883
**The worst start to winter ever, and just 4 days later we had THE blizzard
***Following the Feb 27, 2010 snow, deep snow remained on the ground through early March, but the Feb 27, 1946 snow only stayed on the ground til March 1st.

[michsnowfreak]

dmc76, on 17 February 2012 - 10:55 PM, said:

2 to 3" reported in Saginaw county tonight

I hear that its a very scenic wet snow up there.

[cyclone77]

0.7" of snow so far in Feb here.

[hm8]

Weird stuff going on outside right now...10 minutes ago it was a rain/snow mixture, coming down at a good clip, that switched to light snow and sleet, and now we're getting these flakes that are just monsters but really spread apart and floating down very slowly.

[cyclone77]

hm8, on 18 February 2012 - 12:49 AM, said:

Weird stuff going on outside right now...10 minutes ago it was a rain/snow mixture, coming down at a good clip, that switched to light snow and sleet, and now we're getting these flakes that are just monsters but really spread apart and floating down very slowly.

Interesting how you guys in Wisconsin and Michigan picked up some snow today. You would never guess that here. Was completely sunny all day and very mild.

[Chicago Storm]

Friday, February 17th:
Hi: 48F
Lo: 25F
Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy
Max Wind Gust: 25MPH
Rainfall: 0.00"
Snowfall: 0.0"

[hm8]

cyclone77, on 18 February 2012 - 12:52 AM, said:

Interesting how you guys in Wisconsin and Michigan picked up some snow today. You would never guess that here. Was completely sunny all day and very mild.

Well I'd bareeely call it snow here, its done already and not so much as a single speck of white is on the ground...but yeah, it was a very nice day earlier.

[BeastFromtheEast]

cyclone77, on 18 February 2012 - 12:52 AM, said:

Interesting how you guys in Wisconsin and Michigan picked up some snow today. You would never guess that here. Was completely sunny all day and very mild.

It snowed nicely up here for a few hours with some periods of ripping snow with monster flakes mixed in up here late this morning and around noon.. Didn't accumulate much at all though and in a matter of a few hours it was like nothing had happened and the sun was out making for a beautiful February day outside..

[cyclone77]

BeastFromtheEast, on 18 February 2012 - 01:01 AM, said:

It snowed nicely up here for a few hours with some periods of ripping snow with monster flakes mixed in up here late this morning and around noon.. Didn't accumulate much at all though and in a matter of a few hours it was like nothing had happened and the sun was out making for a beautiful February day outside..

Sweet. Sometimes those fast transitions in conditions can be pretty interesting, even without appreciable accumulations.

[Chicago Storm]

For those who didn't know and care...

Starting last month LOT started publishing daily climate reports for ARR, DPA, MDW, UGN and VPZ (In addition to ORD/RFD/LOT).

There is also now an observer for DPA.

[andyhb]

00z GFS/GGEM have the mid-range system getting strung out in the West, but the Euro...well...that is an entirely different story.

[BowMeHunter]

?

[andyhb]

BowMeHunter, on 18 February 2012 - 02:02 AM, said:

?

Still in the voodoo land (and for the lolz/"oh what that would look like" territory), but you can't tell me that doesn't look impressive:
 00zeuro500mbHGHTNA216.gif   70.17K   3 downloads

[Thundersnow12]

andyhb, on 18 February 2012 - 02:26 AM, said:

Still in the voodoo land (and for the lolz/"oh what that would look like" territory), but you can't tell me that doesn't look impressive:
00zeuro500mbHGHTNA216.gif

Ya for the nrn plains.

[andyhb]

Thundersnow12, on 18 February 2012 - 02:34 AM, said:

Ya for the nrn plains.

Then the Upper Midwest the following day, not to mention the warm sector side, which doesn't have that lead wave like in the 12z run to hamper potential Gulf return flow, but then again I'm probably over-analyzing considering we're this far out...

Although it is nice to see the level of consistency between the two Euro runs today.

[Hoosier]

andyhb, on 18 February 2012 - 02:36 AM, said:

Then the Upper Midwest the following day, not to mention the warm sector side, which doesn't have that lead wave like in the 12z run to hamper potential Gulf return flow, but then again I'm probably over-analyzing considering we're this far out, although it is nice to see the consistency between the two Euro runs today.

No lead wave immediately prior like 12z but there is that thing around 168 hours which does a good job hampering the return flow.

[turtlehurricane]

Still above freezing at 2 am. Spring is really here.

[Stebo48858]

WRT to 9-11 day system, a large number of the Ensemble members for the GFS have strong solutions, actually the only the OP GFS and 2 other Ensemble members didn't go gang busters with the system.