73 replies to this topic

[Ridingtime]

Just wondering if there is anyone on this board that tracks weather in Israel, particularly when it comes to snow. I just moved here from NYC, and would enjoy hearing insights from anyone about what weather patterns are necessary for snow chances. I also just checked out the GFS and it seems to be showing a pretty significant cold shot coming next week into the Middle East area, with lots of precipitation to back it up, so I am kind of excited for what's to come. Any comments, thoughts and insights from anyone else would be highly appreciated.

[HurricaneJosh]

I would think it would be a frustrating experience to be an icep*ss living in Israel.

Like me, you're probably going to need to travel for your weather fixes. Like, L.A. weather is totally boring, but you know what? I accept it and I'm totally Zen about it.

[bluewave]

Ridingtime, on 5 January 2012 - 03:30 PM, said:

Just wondering if there is anyone on this board that tracks weather in Israel, particularly when it comes to snow. I just moved here from NYC, and would enjoy hearing insights from anyone about what weather patterns are necessary for snow chances. I also just checked out the GFS and it seems to be showing a pretty significant cold shot coming next week into the Middle East area, with lots of precipitation to back it up, so I am kind of excited for what's to come. Any comments, thoughts and insights from anyone else would be highly appreciated.

I know that there were a few significant snowfalls in Jerusalem back in January and February 2008.
You need a big enough blocking ridge to your NW over Europe and a piece of energy digging far enough
south and usually closing near Israel to get snow in Jerusalem. Here's a map and a site that keeps archived
maps for the region:

1/30/2008




2/19/08





http://www.wetterzen.../fsrea2eur.html

[Arctic_Blast]

I've noticed that Israel seems to do well with snow during El Ninos. Jerusalem had significant events in 1992, 1998 and 2003. They also had a huge snowstorm in January 2000, which was a nina.

I don't remember where I found this photo, but it is from Jan. 2000.

 Jerusalem Snow 1-28-00.jpg   71.03K   1 downloads

[donsutherland1]

Since 2000, I have the following list of significant snowfalls (monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly/AO at start is in parenthesis):

February 27, 2000 (-1.53/+0.814)
January 7, 2002 (-0.07/+1.711)
February 25, 2003 (+0.77/-0.281)
December 26-27, 2006 (+1.19/+1.228)
January 30, 2008 (-1.86/+1.949)

I'll have to see if I can find additional dates.

[mahk_webstah]

One of my best friends is the daughter of an Israeli weather man. Ask people about the American guy, Bob, who used to be on the radio giving forecasts. He is retired. One time he took me into their weather office...twas cool.

[weathafella]

I was in Jerusalem in March of 2007 and it snowed on the day I left. The odd thing was that our flight was the last one into BOS before they shut down due to a SWFE which ultimately dropped 8 inches thereby killing any chance of the futility record. I think it snows sometimes robustly in the Golan.

[WxMidwest]

Simply Find all the dates with Major Snows in Israel, and plug them into the Daily Climate Composites Webpage and see what the current and precursing 500mb pattern for the region... Looks like Don has the dates...

[Ridingtime]

This is great help guys, thanks a lot

If anyone wants to check out the gfs for me for what it is forecasting in 5 days here and confirm to me that I'm right in that a cold snowy shot is coming that'd be great too. I'll try to post an image soon when I get the chance.

[nrgjeff]

Looks like that closed low goes too far north for snow in Israel. GFS shows 850s to zero, but not the Euro. Both have thicknesses too high for snow. I'd like to see 534 thicknesses, or at least 540. The 546 line is a no-go in that part of the world.

Forecasting snow in Israel is kind of like forecasting snow in Southern California. You need a closed low to go right overhead or to your southeast. Jerusalem should be to the northwest of the low. Tel Aviv can just about forget it at sea level except for a very rare occurrence kind of like the LA Basin. Parts of Haifa are up on a ridge, which helps, but it is still too close to the coast. Jerusalem has elevation so we see the stats. It happens more there. The Golan Heights is much higher; a ski area may even be up there still.

Anyway for snow in Israel you'd want the blocking mentioned earlier in the thread. Right now the +AO is killing that which is another problem with the upcoming system. A -AO would promote more digging. The Golan is about the only area with a chance, 546 works at that elevation, but I do not recommend snow chasing there. Ski area or not, most of it is pretty intense with security etc. Enjoy your time in Israel.

Ridingtime, on 6 January 2012 - 02:05 AM, said:

This is great help guys, thanks a lot

If anyone wants to check out the gfs for me for what it is forecasting in 5 days here and confirm to me that I'm right in that a cold snowy shot is coming that'd be great too. I'll try to post an image soon when I get the chance.

[Sock Puppet]

Was never there during snow but a few years back I remember a storm that blanketed Jerusalem with hail.

[Sock Puppet]

I think I saw a met here that was located in Jerusalem

[donsutherland1]

Sock Puppet, on 6 January 2012 - 11:32 AM, said:

I think I saw a met here that was located in Jerusalem

JConsor is his AmericanWx handle.

[weathafella]

Sock Puppet, on 6 January 2012 - 11:32 AM, said:

I think I saw a met here that was located in Jerusalem

He's in Jerusalem, when I was there with my family during july of 2010, we spent an afternoon together. Pm jconsor...very nice fellow.

[Jim in NOVA]

As others have mentioned, the Golan Heights can get snow relatively regularly. See e.g.: http://en.wikipedia....rmon_ski_resort

[Ridingtime]

nrgjeff, on 6 January 2012 - 11:13 AM, said:

Looks like that closed low goes too far north for snow in Israel. GFS shows 850s to zero, but not the Euro. Both have thicknesses too high for snow. I'd like to see 534 thicknesses, or at least 540. The 546 line is a no-go in that part of the world.

Forecasting snow in Israel is kind of like forecasting snow in Southern California. You need a closed low to go right overhead or to your southeast. Jerusalem should be to the northwest of the low. Tel Aviv can just about forget it at sea level except for a very rare occurrence kind of like the LA Basin. Parts of Haifa are up on a ridge, which helps, but it is still too close to the coast. Jerusalem has elevation so we see the stats. It happens more there. The Golan Heights is much higher; a ski area may even be up there still.

Anyway for snow in Israel you'd want the blocking mentioned earlier in the thread. Right now the +AO is killing that which is another problem with the upcoming system. A -AO would promote more digging. The Golan is about the only area with a chance, 546 works at that elevation, but I do not recommend snow chasing there. Ski area or not, most of it is pretty intense with security etc. Enjoy your time in Israel.

This is great info. Thanks!

I have been noticing too that the GFS is not showing snow so favorably any more. The model runs I was looking at a couple of days ago had the 0 line going beneath Israel down by the red sea, and there was plenty of precip along with it in the system. Now the line is further north, but there is still a system coming decent precip amounts. I am in Jerusalem, so elevation can help. I am not so sure actually how to factor that in.

It is interesting to hear too that the +AO effects Israel too. I thought that was just killing cold for the Northeast CONUS. But I guess that makes sense, because a +AO in a way is like a lock to the cold air from spilling downwards, and I can see how that would effect places like Israel.

I may just have to eventually head to the Golan. I have had enough friends that go skiing up there, and it's been something on my to do list anyways

[Sock Puppet]

Found some cool Jerusalem snow pics from 1921 http://vintage-every...salem-1921.html

[Arctic_Blast]

Snow days and totals in Jerusalem since 1870:

http://www.02ws.com/...snow.php&lang=0

[weathafella]

That was quite a snow dump in 1921!

[wxsniss]

some amazing pics!

i'm imagining religious confrontations with snowballs instead of stones...

[jconsor]

I didn't put much hope for snow in Israel for the storm late this week all along, because the cold air is coming in from the west and will be modified for quite a while by the mild Mediterranean.

Usually in order to get snow in Israel aside from the Golan Heights, the cold air has to drop straight down from the north or NNW via the "Siberian Express", without having much time to be modified by the Mediterranean. In order for that to happen, you usually need a big ridge (ideally a blocking ridge) somewhere between the UK and western Russia.

Ridingtime, on 7 January 2012 - 01:17 PM, said:

This is great info. Thanks!

I have been noticing too that the GFS is not showing snow so favorably any more. The model runs I was looking at a couple of days ago had the 0 line going beneath Israel down by the red sea, and there was plenty of precip along with it in the system. Now the line is further north, but there is still a system coming decent precip amounts. I am in Jerusalem, so elevation can help. I am not so sure actually how to factor that in.

It is interesting to hear too that the +AO effects Israel too. I thought that was just killing cold for the Northeast CONUS. But I guess that makes sense, because a +AO in a way is like a lock to the cold air from spilling downwards, and I can see how that would effect places like Israel.

I may just have to eventually head to the Golan. I have had enough friends that go skiing up there, and it's been something on my to do list anyways

[Ridingtime]

So I am having high hopes for this next Tuesday. Any thoughts?

[Ridingtime]

jconsor, on 11 January 2012 - 05:30 AM, said:

I didn't put much hope for snow in Israel for the storm late this week all along, because the cold air is coming in from the west and will be modified for quite a while by the mild Mediterranean.

Usually in order to get snow in Israel aside from the Golan Heights, the cold air has to drop straight down from the north or NNW via the "Siberian Express", without having much time to be modified by the Mediterranean. In order for that to happen, you usually need a big ridge (ideally a blocking ridge) somewhere between the UK and western Russia.

Thanks for this. Good to keep learning about the weather here. The beginning of next week is looking a little more interesting from the looks of it. Any thoughts on that? Great to have a met here too from Jlem!

[Ridingtime]

Sock Puppet, on 10 January 2012 - 12:09 PM, said:

Found some cool Jerusalem snow pics from 1921 http://vintage-every...salem-1921.html

Wow that's epic stuff! Thanks for sharing

[Ridingtime]

Jconsor, what do you think of the cold shot coming next week?

[jconsor]

The deep trough in the eastern Mediterranean that some guidance indicated for mid-late next week is looking less impressive, as a trough over Iceland/Britain squashes the ridging over western Europe and keeps the pattern progressive. I'm not impressed about any snow chances for Jerusalem next Wed-Fri, though it still looks rather cold Thu night (perhaps near 0C).

Ridingtime, on 13 January 2012 - 05:36 AM, said:

Jconsor, what do you think of the cold shot coming next week?

[JBG]

Arctic_Blast, on 5 January 2012 - 07:30 PM, said:

I've noticed that Israel seems to do well with snow during El Ninos. Jerusalem had significant events in 1992, 1998 and 2003. They also had a huge snowstorm in January 2000, which was a nina.

I don't remember where I found this photo, but it is from Jan. 2000.

Jerusalem Snow 1-28-00.jpg

January 2000 was not a Niño.

[Sock Puppet]

Hey riding, what's the weather there like? Seen reports of snow and sleet in parts of the country

[jconsor]

In Sunday's storm, the only accumulating snow was in the highest elevations of the Golan Heights. There was also some snow mixed in with the rain in the highest elevations of the Hebron Hills south of Jerusalem. In Jerusalem it was a very cold rain with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s.

http://www.israelnat...78#.Tx0jAYF17-s

Sock Puppet, on 22 January 2012 - 11:14 AM, said:

Hey riding, what's the weather there like? Seen reports of snow and sleet in parts of the country

[Ridingtime]

Sock Puppet, on 22 January 2012 - 11:14 AM, said:

Hey riding, what's the weather there like? Seen reports of snow and sleet in parts of the country

Basically crappy cold rain here in Jerusalem. The rain is a blessing cause it was lacking last year but I'm finding it kind of miserable.

Jconsor, do you see any possibilty of snow on the horizon? I know it's supposed warm up soon but really hoping it cools back down and February delivers something nice.

[donsutherland1]

Some quick statistics for Jerusalem's major snowstorms (15 cm or more):

• 2/3 (66.7%) occurred with an AO+ and 53.3% occurred with an AO of +1.000 or higher; 13.3% occurred with an AO of -1.000 or below.
• 40.0% occurred during El Niño events; 33.3% occurred during La Niña events, and 26.7% occurred during Neutral ENSO situations.
• Months by frequency: February (46.7%), January (33.3%), March (13.3%), and December (6.7%).

The scatter diagram for Jerusalem's major snowstorms (1950-Present) is below:

[Ridingtime]

donsutherland1, on 23 January 2012 - 08:34 PM, said:

Some quick statistics for Jerusalem's major snowstorms (15 cm or more):

• 2/3 (66.7%) occurred with an AO+ and 53.3% occurred with an AO of +1.000 or higher; 13.3% occurred with an AO of -1.000 or below.
• 40.0% occurred during El Niño events; 33.3% occurred during La Niña events, and 26.7% occurred during Neutral ENSO situations.
• Months by frequency: February (46.7%), January (33.3%), March (13.3%), and December (6.7%).

The scatter diagram for Jerusalem's major snowstorms (1950-Present) is below:

Thanks Don for this. Excellent info. I guess based off this there is still a chance for some snow down the line this winter, considering the AO has been consistently positive and February is a slightly more common month for snow.

[Ridingtime]

Just want to restart some discussion here. It looks like we are approaching a very possible cold shot with some snow here in Israel/Middle East this coming Fri-Sunday. If I read the maps correctly, it does look as if some blocking does take place as well right over NW Europe that allows for some cold air to pour in. Any thoughts and comments would be great :-)

[donsutherland1]

Ridingtime, on 13 February 2012 - 05:01 PM, said:

Just want to restart some discussion here. It looks like we are approaching a very possible cold shot with some snow here in Israel/Middle East this coming Fri-Sunday. If I read the maps correctly, it does look as if some blocking does take place as well right over NW Europe that allows for some cold air to pour in. Any thoughts and comments would be great :-)

Unfortunately, it looks a bit too warm to me for snow in most or even all of Jerusalem. There's time for change and hopefully things will change.

[Ridingtime]

donsutherland1, on 14 February 2012 - 08:54 AM, said:

Unfortunately, it looks a bit too warm to me for snow in most or even all of Jerusalem. There's time for change and hopefully things will change.

Just curious how you are seeing this? I have only been looking at the GFS and from what I am seeing, it is showing a strong low pressure system that initially brings rain to Jerusalem, and then it passes north over Israel bringing in a cold front while precipitation continues to fall eventually changing to snow.

Maybe you are seeing the Euro and it is showing something different? Or am I missing something on the GFS?

Here is what I am seeing that seems to indicate snow to me: