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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?


ORH_wxman

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Not really...I had 70" at my house last year which is more than most of SNE. I also live at 350' in a heavily wooded area.

Its definitely a lot harder for you to get snow down there than it was for you up in MIddlebury. You still have any friends up here? I've got this feeling we are in for a good winter up here and it'd be good for you to be able to come up this way for a big whopper.

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No it doesn't, but the N PAC is really blocked up too...so I'm not sure how easy it is to dislodge those dual blocks (Kamchatka and NAO). I'm certainly not an expert on that stuff though. For all I know we could see a raging PAC firehose jet by the 10th.

The only thing of substance I can really say is probably that it will be hard to dislodge a blocked stable pattern and usually takes longer than models want to change it.

Yeah definitely. The fact that the ensembles have it locked in for the day 10-15 period is a good sign... since the models are going to be too quick in breaking it down.

I'm thinking that once we start to see the split PV start to reorganize by early December we should have a better idea how much staying power the -NAO has.

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Its not often that my area is TOTALLY shut out in a HECS caliber event (Will can vouch for this), but its happened in 4 cosnecutive and if we make it 5, then I'm going to the funny farm.

I dnt think that will happen here, though.....issues, yes.....shutout, no.

What 4? By shutout I would think 2/6 and 2/10 of this year.

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The 46" in 3 days that Logan11 got, while I didn't see a flake.

Doesn't it sort of go all the way back to Valentines Day 2007?

It seems as though there has been interior HECS, several mid-Atlantic HECS, and not much to speak of on the SNE coastal plain since 2006, right?

I definitely agree you are due for one... but Dec 1-3 time frame is never a good time for strong ESE inflow.

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The 46" in 3 days that Logan11 got, while I didn't see a flake.

The Logan11's and NYC 2/26...THANK GOD are much more rarer. We got it out of our system for the time being. I got fooked just as bad here, so I'm ready for a good one as well....though I'd be telling a lie if I said I wasn't worried about the time of year for my backyard.

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Doesn't it sort of go all the way back to Valentines Day 2007?

It seems as though there has been interior HECS, several mid-Atlantic HECS, and not much to speak of on the SNE coastal plain since 2006, right?

I definitely agree you are due for one... but Dec 1-3 time frame is never a good time for strong ESE inflow.

1) I didn't get SO in that...I got about 8" of snow\sleet and remained below freezing.

2) Dec 2008 double header, in which I got a cumulative 22", helped to amerliorate the situation somewhat.

We are due, though.

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I need to stop talking about last year....it makes me wanna do bad, bad things.

Haha... for some reason it wasn't that bad up here because the misses were huge, by like 100s of miles. For you down there it was probably much worse seeing precip shields die not far to the south.

Most of last year's HECS didn't really phase me because we were so far removed, lol. I bet it would've been much worse to be so close.

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But the weather was so nice in March.

Yeah, really worth the 49F high I had. I saw that coming from a mile away too...the monster ULL going underneath SNE that would normally be a monster snowstorm, even for Ray's area, but everyone was hoping we'd get another 5F on the boundary layer 5 days before it. :lol:

But anyway, I digress, literally water under the bridge at this point.

We usually post the GFS ensemble analogs...but they have the Canadian ones too on that site for D8....Canadian ensembles are not bad either.

500hghtcompcan610.gif

I think everyone in eastern SNE would take the early Dec 1981 analog. :snowman:

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