MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 haha, this is too good: end of the short term section by La Corte: QPF LOOKS MEAGER SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESSOF 4 INCHES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DUE TO SOME HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS WHICH BUF KIT HINTS AT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING APPROACHED BY A SHORT LIVED BUT POTENT AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MOST OF THIS SHUD OCCUR THURS NIGHT AND IS ADDRESSED BELOW. Start of the long term by Martin: -- Changed Discussion --MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OF2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AROUND 5 INCHES IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...AND PERHAPS THE REGION EAST OF HARRISBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 haha, this is too good: end of the short term section by La Corte: Start of the long term by Martin: I really wish they'd go into more detail sometimes, Martin in particular. I think Mt. Holly often does a better job describing in detail the meteorological reasoning behind the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think Friday night highs single digits or even below 0 in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I want to get in the negatives. Coldest it has been since moving here in 2005 has been 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I want to get in the negatives. Coldest it has been since moving here in 2005 has been 4. We got to -17 two Januaries ago, I think Pennman will remember. I went outside with a homemade soap bubble wand (bend coat hanger) to do the frozen soap bubble thing: http://www.sciencebuzz.org/blog/bursts/frozen-soap-bubbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I want to get in the negatives. Coldest it has been since moving here in 2005 has been 4. Wow. Was the 4° 2/5/07 or 1/17/09? We hit -2° and -1° in Lebanon County on those days. I had -12° at my apartment here in State College on 1/17/09...wasn't thinking and almost got frostbite scraping my windshield that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow. Was the 4° 2/5/07 or 1/17/09? We hit -2° and -1° in Lebanon County on those days. I had -12° at my apartment here in State College on 1/17/09...wasn't thinking and almost got frostbite scraping my windshield that morning. Did you head out to the Barrens that morning? I wonder what it was there? -25? -30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I believe it was actually Dec 2005 - I remember it well because I was working downtown and had to park on City Island and make that long walk across Rhe Walnut St Bridge to 2nd and Locust. If you aren't familiar with Harrisburg, that's about a mile mostly walking over what was then Rhe frozen Susquehanna with a nice stiff wind!it was our first winter here after being in Texas forever. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did you head out to the Barrens that morning? I wonder what it was there? -25? -30? No, I didn't even know the Barrens was so close at that point. If we clear off and go pretty calm Sunday or Monday morning I'll probably check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is somewhat better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Tom Russell and most met's are calling for 3-4"...I have a feeling it will be slightly higher. Perhaps 5-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So, still looking like a 3-6 inch snowfall for tomorrow night into Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow. Was the 4° 2/5/07 or 1/17/09? We hit -2° and -1° in Lebanon County on those days. I had -12° at my apartment here in State College on 1/17/09...wasn't thinking and almost got frostbite scraping my windshield that morning. That January 09 outbreak was ridiculous. It just so happened that I decided to go to Blue Knob snowboarding the night of those record lows. Let's just say after the first run without the face covered and goggles down i was making wardrobe adjustments. I didn't realize how cold it had gotten there until a few days later when CTP put this map up: That -24 in the Cambria/Bedford/Somerset borders is where Blue Knob is located, easily the coldest weather I had ever experienced. No obs from the Barrens sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I was out of town for that cold blast. I was in Panama - quite the contrast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That January 09 outbreak was ridiculous. It just so happened that I decided to go to Blue Knob snowboarding the night of those record lows. Let's just say after the first run without the face covered and goggles down i was making wardrobe adjustments. I didn't realize how cold it had gotten there until a few days later when CTP put this map up: That -24 in the Cambria/Bedford/Somerset borders is where Blue Knob is located, easily the coldest weather I had ever experienced. No obs from the Barrens sadly. The radiational cooling in the Bald Eagle Valley was insane. I remember staring at my therm display with its -17; I took a photo of it to post on Eastern, sadly it's lost because I didn't save the photo. Second coldest for me, first was the -22 in Pittsburgh in Jan 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That January 09 outbreak was ridiculous. It just so happened that I decided to go to Blue Knob snowboarding the night of those record lows. Let's just say after the first run without the face covered and goggles down i was making wardrobe adjustments. I didn't realize how cold it had gotten there until a few days later when CTP put this map up: That -24 in the Cambria/Bedford/Somerset borders is where Blue Knob is located, easily the coldest weather I had ever experienced. No obs from the Barrens sadly. Yeah, that was something else. I drove from State College to NW Snyder County that morning. It was -12° at my apartment, rose to -6° to -8° near campus, then dropped back down and hovered between -10° and -15° most of the rest of the way, with a low of -17° in Woodward, far eastern Centre County.(and that was at 8:45-9:00AM...so I'd guess they were closer to -20° right at sunrise) IIRC from Weather World, there was a -29° reading in Clarence, in far northern Centre County that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Updated Guesses: UNV: 1-3 IPT:1-2 MDT:2-4 AOO: 2-4 JST 3-5 SEG: 2-3 AVP: 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The mid shift forecast update appears to have bumped up accumulations for the AOO/UNV corridor. County forecast for Blair, Bedford and southern Centre went from 2-4 to 3-5 for Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm gonna stick with my 4-6" and stay on the higher side...That's my guestimate lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The mid shift forecast update appears to have bumped up accumulations for the AOO/UNV corridor. County forecast for Blair, Bedford and southern Centre went from 2-4 to 3-5 for Thursday night. I would think 5 would be really tough to come by in this situation. 5 or 6" amounts should be confined to Cambria/Somerset. Looks like things should dwindle once over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's my preliminary snowmap for tomorrow nights event. Once again this is an event where I believe most everyone gets advisory snowfall. Confidence is highest from the Laurel's west as SREF's have been consistently painting some of the highest pops for 1+ over this area. I've decided to shadow a pretty large 2-4 region east of the Alleghenies and maintain a 4-6 zone through the more northern part of PA thru the Pocono's. A possible critique if the models continue to be a bit more south and dry is to maybe move this region south or axe it altogether once east of around UNV to west of IPT. This is another one of these events where the accumulation potential kind of makes things hard to bust thing into good ranges. There will likely be a lot of 3-4 inch amounts statewide just like the last advisory snow event. My map also depends a good bit on what should be good snow growth/ratios to make up for QPF amounts that would otherwise not yield very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I would think 5 would be really tough to come by in this situation. 5 or 6" amounts should be confined to Cambria/Somerset. Looks like things should dwindle once over the mountains. Yea, I actually really debated stopping that 4-6 zone and just doing the classic cut Blair and Centre into third (4-6 western third) and then looping back toward Dubois and etc. and have 2-4 for the rest of PA east. I guess we'll see if the models get a little bit more vigor into this system tonight and early tomorrow, that'll be important to maintaining heavier snowfall east of the mountains better. Otherwise, I feel alright about seeing some similar amounts in the 4-6 range west of the Laurels in the Pittsburgh region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's my preliminary snowmap for tomorrow nights event. Once again this is an event where I believe most everyone gets advisory snowfall. Confidence is highest from the Laurel's west as SREF's have been consistently painting some of the highest pops for 1+ over this area. I've decided to shadow a pretty large 2-4 region east of the Alleghenies and maintain a 4-6 zone through the more northern part of PA thru the Pocono's. A possible critique if the models continue to be a bit more south and dry is to maybe move this region south or axe it altogether once east of around UNV to west of IPT. This is another one of these events where the accumulation potential kind of makes things hard to bust thing into good ranges. There will likely be a lot of 3-4 inch amounts statewide just like the last advisory snow event. My map also depends a good bit on what should be good snow growth/ratios to make up for QPF amounts that would otherwise not yield very much. A few things look to come together tomorrow evening from 0z to 6z... First is some intense UVVs. Second is the max uvv's coincide with the -8°c isotherm giving us some high ratios. Third is the 528 thickness in place during the heaviest precip which should ensure advisory fluffy snowfall for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It took me 3HRS to do this. But, it was fun. This is my model the USM. United States Model. Runs out to 24HRS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Couldn't ask for a better look to the new 03z SREF on the snow probs of 1+ with my placement of highest accumulations, even though its lacking 4+ probs anywhere. Also, the 0z Euro has 0.25-.5" total over what would be my 4-6 zone (Euro a bit wetter in northern tier taking the range into southern NY) while the 0.1-0.25" zone takes up roughly the southeastern portion of PA where the 2-4" zone is. All in all I say the map is actually looking alright for now. SREF at 30 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Couldn't ask for a better look to the new 03z SREF on the snow probs of 1+ with my placement of highest accumulations, even though its lacking 4+ probs anywhere. Also, the 0z Euro has 0.25-.5" total over what would be my 4-6 zone (Euro a bit wetter in northern tier taking the range into southern NY) while the 0.1-0.25" zone takes up roughly the southeastern portion of PA where the 2-4" zone is. All in all I say the map is actually looking alright for now. SREF at 30 hour I think most of the ETA's are on crack. Although 1 looks to found the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think most of the ETA's are on crack. Although 1 looks to found the right idea. Yea the SREF QPF mean seems to be reflecting the NAM operational a bit with keeping the axis of heaviest pretty far south. Now that that loaded up i'm surprised the snow probs looked like they did unless they account in ratios or something. Otherwise things look pretty good for a nice areawide advisory thumping later today, the Euro seems a lil bit wetter than it had been for a couple days and the GFS has been pretty decent too. Anyways it's time for bed, at this rate I'm gonna be sleeping thru the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yea the SREF QPF mean seems to be reflecting the NAM operational a bit with keeping the axis of heaviest pretty far south. Now that that loaded up i'm surprised the snow probs looked like they did unless they account in ratios or something. Otherwise things look pretty good for a nice areawide advisory thumping later today, the Euro seems a lil bit wetter than it had been for a couple days and the GFS has been pretty decent too. Anyways it's time for bed, at this rate I'm gonna be sleeping thru the storm Haha I am waiting up for the GFS.. IDK why.. lol. Then sleeping till probably 1-2PM. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 06Z RUN of my new NEM (Name Pending). North East Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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