The Infamous Snowhole- LA Nada pattern

[Grothar]

For the last couple years, major snowfall events have been hugging the Atlantic coast. Many of us west of the fall line are frustrated, p-ode and just plain flabbergasted that even in a La Nina year, the coast again gets a major storm. This drought has to end soon- but when? Please state your thoughts here. And for those who think this post is weenism- please continue to dig out while the rest of us figure out what model these weather patterns mimic for us. I think those in Harrisburg would call this the La Nada weather pattern.

[Ray8002]

For the last couple years, major snowfall events have been hugging the Atlantic coast. Many of us west of the fall line are frustrated, p-ode and just plain flabbergasted that even in a La Nina year, the coast again gets a major storm. This drought has to end soon- but when? Please state your thoughts here. And for those who think this post is weenism- please continue to dig out while the rest of us figure out what model these weather patterns mimic for us. I think those in Harrisburg would call this the La Nada weather pattern.

I hate to throw salt in the wound but us on the coast are loving it.. I hope it never ends. The Jersey shore is the Snow Capital of the world right now.. 4 major winter storm in less than a year and a half.. On a serious note, you guys will get yours this year.

[SnowGoose69]

The last true "La Nada" was the warmest winter on record.

[Sundog]

The last true "La Nada" was the warmest winter on record.

Yea I don't need another 01-02 winter. Funny thing is though Canada had some brutally cold air. Like -40C 850's showing up. We were discussing this somewhere on this forum or Eastern a little while ago.

[SnowGoose69]

Yea I don't need another 01-02 winter. Funny thing is though Canada had some brutally cold air. Like -40C 850's showing up. We were discussing this somewhere on this forum or Eastern a little while ago.

It was a classic 20/20 hindsight scenario overlooked by all forecasters who did a winter outlook....a NCEP analysis of all neutral state winters which occurred near the solar maximum showed a pronounced tendency for zonal flow across North America and relatively mild temps...it was funny because weak El Nino winters near the solar max were shown to be cold and snowy if I recall correctly, so the neutral ENSO state screwed us.

[Absolute Humidity]

Sorry, can't feel bad. Spend many decades watching it snow in PA and rain on the JC. This is are due, this is our time.

[_AR_]

Eh it will all be melted by the new year anyway.

[NortheastPAWx]

Sorry, can't feel bad. Spend many decades watching it snow in PA and rain on the JC. This is are due, this is our time.

As I recall for about 70% of last winter you were all getting crushed and we were getting shafted.

[BxEngine]

As I recall for about 70% of last winter you were all getting crushed and we were getting shafted.

decades>last year.

[Keith O]

I feel your pain here in the NW part of NJ though we have at least got some fringe impacts on occasion but the jackpots the past 2 years have been S and/or E of here. Really don't see this changing anytime soon as even the fantasy 10 day storms on the models almost always progged to impact S and E of here more. Guess the days of the rain/snow line setting up along the fall line are a thing of the past. Oh well bitching about it certainly isn't going to change anything, I've just learned to keep my expectations low and figure climatology will eventually come back to our side. On the bright side if we ended up with 20+" and the coast got nothing there would be about 2 minutes of news coverage and not the 24/7 coverage we get to enjoy now. And yes I do relalize that TV coverage is relative to the amount of viewer population effected and if it snows out here in the "boonies" it generally would not be news worthy. Once the cleanup is finally done than we can enjoy the next 9 months of these towns/cites crying poor because of the snow removal costs.

For the last couple years, major snowfall events have been hugging the Atlantic coast. Many of us west of the fall line are frustrated, p-ode and just plain flabbergasted that even in a La Nina year, the coast again gets a major storm. This drought has to end soon- but when? Please state your thoughts here. And for those who think this post is weenism- please continue to dig out while the rest of us figure out what model these weather patterns mimic for us. I think those in Harrisburg would call this the La Nada weather pattern.

[JBG]

The last true "La Nada" was the warmest winter on record.

Yea I don't need another 01-02 winter. Funny thing is though Canada had some brutally cold air. Like -40C 850's showing up. We were discussing this somewhere on this forum or Eastern a little while ago.

Wasn't 2008-9 a La Nada?

[SnowGoose69]

s

Wasn't 2008-9 a La Nada?

No, it was a weak La Nina ....La Nada's are extremely unusual overall...01-02 had an ONI index of 0.0 or 0.1+- the entire winter....the only other winters since 1950 that had that were 78-79, 81-82...the 78-81 period was quite remarkable in that the entire time there was virtually no pronounced moved towards either ENSO episode.

[Grothar]

I am glad you are all commenting but what is bugging the hell out of me is where in the weather records has this many coastals occurred in a 2-3-year time frame and when will it end? If we have a drought this spring/summer in East Central PA, the ground water recharge areas are screwed.

[SnowGoose69]

I am glad you are all commenting but what is bugging the hell out of me is where in the weather records has this many coastals occurred in a 2-3-year time frame and when will it end? If we have a drought this spring/summer in East Central PA, the ground water recharge areas are screwed.

There has been a decrease in the number of coastal huggers the last 10 years or so it seems...the -NAO state predominating could have something to do with that but more factors are certainly involved. No doubt though, the 1/22/87, 3/13/93, and 12/30/97 tracks up the coastal Plains and into the Hudson Valley/Berkshires really are at a premium lately...it seems its benchmark or Battle Creek nowadays.

[jm1220]

As I recall for about 70% of last winter you were all getting crushed and we were getting shafted.

I have to agree here. Central/east central PA is massively overdue for a significantly above average snowfall winter. The last real one there was 03-04, 7 winters ago. In five winters I spent at Penn State there wasn't one above average winter. A few were well below. Last winter was around or slightly above average for I-80 and south, but north was majorly shafted. The winters there have been so miserable for so long that I would take a rainstorm to quick dryslot to watch I-99/219 get plastered. It has to even out at some point.

[jm1220]

decades>last year.

Central PA averages in many cases nearly twice our snowfall, and for several winters of the last 7 they have had close to or less than us. That's definitely indicative of a new overall pattern where they are getting shafted. It's not a fluke that only occurred last year.

[NortheastPAWx]

I am glad you are all commenting but what is bugging the hell out of me is where in the weather records has this many coastals occurred in a 2-3-year time frame and when will it end? If we have a drought this spring/summer in East Central PA, the ground water recharge areas are screwed.

That's almost what happened last winter...those 2 snow events on 2/10 and 2/25-27 may have saved us from a drought emergency over the Summer.

[BxEngine]

Central PA averages in many cases nearly twice our snowfall, and for several winters of the last 7 they have had close to or less than us. That's definitely indicative of a new overall pattern where they are getting shafted. It's not a fluke that only occurred last year.

I agree. But the post I was referring to stated that for decades that area did better than the coast (which is true), so the shift isnt something he would feel bad about...and PSU said last year the coast got more snow. His post made no sense with that context.

[NortheastPAWx]

I agree. But the post I was referring to stated that for decades that area did better than the coast (which is true), so the shift isnt something he would feel bad about...and PSU said last year the coast got more snow. His post made no sense with that context.

Hey, I haven't been around for decades and decades....

[Isotherm]

2000 seems to be the year changer in terms of pattern shift. I've seen 7/10 above normal snow winters since 2000 in my area, and in the 1990s, only saw 3. The interior Northeast did quite well in te 90s w/ the strong nina/+NAO patterns and the overall warmer temps, storm tracks further north. But the strong nina + neg NAO has been a disaster so far for the interior. However, I expect the second half of winter to possibly hit you guys hard when we should see more SE ridging. Don't lose all hope just yet for this winter.

[NortheastPAWx]

2000 seems to be the year changer in terms of pattern shift. I've seen 7/10 above normal snow winters since 2000 in my area, and in the 1990s, only saw 3. The interior Northeast did quite well in te 90s w/ the strong nina/+NAO patterns and the overall warmer temps, storm tracks further north. But the strong nina + neg NAO has been a disaster so far for the interior. However, I expect the second half of winter to possibly hit you guys hard when we should see more SE ridging. Don't lose all hope just yet for this winter.

Yeah, I don't remember personally but 93-94 was a mismatch....KAVP had over 90" that winter.

91-92, 94-95, 97-98 were winters that were disasters all around AFAIK.

[mempho]

2000 seems to be the year changer in terms of pattern shift. I've seen 7/10 above normal snow winters since 2000 in my area, and in the 1990s, only saw 3. The interior Northeast did quite well in te 90s w/ the strong nina/+NAO patterns and the overall warmer temps, storm tracks further north. But the strong nina + neg NAO has been a disaster so far for the interior. However, I expect the second half of winter to possibly hit you guys hard when we should see more SE ridging. Don't lose all hope just yet for this winter.

La Ninas with solar mins....1984-85, 1995-96, and now....

All of the have (or will have) a decent DJF -NAO....there are more. If history is any guide, this is all just beginning....December has actually been an overperformer.

I'd say look for a big overrunning event or two in the south, possibly one Apps/inland runner, and multiple chances for more east coast storms. Further into the interior should get locked into a bone dry and cold regime at some point in early/mid January....just from looking at a little bit of history.

I hate to say it for the inland guys, but history is not too kind. However, it is the weather and basically anything can happen.

[mempho]

I am glad you are all commenting but what is bugging the hell out of me is where in the weather records has this many coastals occurred in a 2-3-year time frame and when will it end? If we have a drought this spring/summer in East Central PA, the ground water recharge areas are screwed.

Prolonged solar minimum....I read a paper on Landscheit's (sp?) site. IDK, if they were onto something or not, but recent anctedotal evidence suggests they might be. Don't ask me how it all works because I don't have any idea what they are talking about half the time, I just know that the end result is that the reduced solar output always leads to a strong -NAO (in their theory).

I would assume that the Nina would give you a better chance than the Nino, but I don't know what to think anymore. I suspect temperature departures in the east might run -5 to -10 for the winter.

[Dark Energy]

I often notice some of the younger posters comment about Boston as if it has always been some kind of snow mecca similar to Buffalo and Burlington (VT not NJ). Truth be told, they are on an unbelievable run since the 1992-93 winter. Prior to that year, Boston was generally regarded as a town slightly snowier than New Haven and considerably less snowy than Windsor Locks (Hartford / Bradley). To mention Boston in the same breath as Albany as a "snow town" would elicit nothing but laughter. However, since this slight climactic shift we've seen since the 1990's, storms stay offshore, Boston's winds stay out of the NE, and Logan doesn't change to rain after an inch or two of slop anymore....a similar pattern emerged per the climate record at OKX on L.I. the following winter...and seems to be spreading southward down the coast, what with the record snowfall at ACY last winter and the fast start they are off to again this year.

William, recall a couple years ago when LI got blasted? Did you see anything like this? I know the frequency was there, but how about amounts? I know this wasnt a wopper compared to your west., but event still. This DEC was promising for storms, and this will be our only storm of the month, most likely. Will we see more in 2011? idk, but the ZR word, to me, should pop up more often then not, i would think.

[chazman]

As one of the older posters, the shift of the coastal storm track is very noticeable. . The usual storm predication map would always have Long Island getting less than NYC, save for the few outliners that gave the east end a few inches. Seems to be flipped nowadays. Even in NYC we rarely get the 4" snowfalls that would be washed away by rain (and of course staying all snow in the northern burbs).

[NortheastPAWx]

Further into the interior should get locked into a bone dry and cold regime at some point in early/mid January....just from looking at a little bit of history.

I hate to say it for the inland guys, but history is not too kind.

Gee, thanks for the optimism :axe:

Only 2 1/2 months until Spring!

[Isotherm]

2000-2001 through 2009-10 winter saw 420" of snow at Upton; 42" per year; at least 110" above normal or 11" per year...the whole period is unprecedented...and you can throw in '94 and '96 if you like...

http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm

Long Island has now seen 5 major snowstorms / blizzards or near blizzards in the last 22 months. I cannot recall any other 22 month period in modern times that featured such volatile activity around here...snowfall amounts are from OKX / Brookhaven:

March 1 - 2, 2009: 14.0"

December 19 - 20, 2009: 26.3"

February 10, 2010: 13.4"

February 26, 2010: 10.4"

December 26 -27, 2010: 18.8"

That comes to a total of 82.9" of snow or an average of 16.6" per storm.

Yeah William, it's been incredible. Here I've had 5 major storms since last December, 2 of those historic. Dec 09 and Dec 10 were both 20"+, the others were 13-16". My oh my have the times changed.

[ptb127]

I hate to throw salt in the wound but us on the coast are loving it.. I hope it never ends. The Jersey shore is the Snow Capital of the world right now.. 4 major winter storm in less than a year and a half.. On a serious note, you guys will get yours this year.

Thanks bud

[Absolute Humidity]

Didn't mean to offend anyone northwest of the traditional rain/snow line with orgional post. It just that this pattern has been unbelievably snowy for the coast. My kids are growing up with a belief that everytime its snows, it will be measured in feet, as if thats some kind of norm? I try to remind them that, hey, dear old dad had to wait 13 years , 13 YEARS! between HECS 1983 -1996. So I know your pain, the pattern will return to normal I suppose soon enough, but for now I gotta love it. An I know you guys are gonna get yours, you always do. Perhaps the next round will feature more expansive precip areas with all snow for all. Can only hope.

[daxx]

I live in Eastern York county PA , and I had over 70 inches of snow last year. I consider this area interior pa as well. I guess what I'm trying to say is, not all the interior areas got screwed last year. This past storm yes, we got shafted, but overall its been great for snow around here.