October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[HokieEnginerd]

I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

First the niño precip was supposed to kick in during late summer then it was Labor Day then it was the equinox then it was late October, now it’s been can kicked to some indeterminate time in November. A couple head fakes occurred in that interval, the most recent one wrapped up a week ago.

 

When is it going to be our turn for a sustained wet pattern with no rug pulls, the stars shouldn’t have to align for our area to get precip…

When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value?

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value?

Okay,

We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots.

We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree? 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, HokieEnginerd said:

I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino.

It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off.

That raises the question, if this fails to deliver then is this dry stretch since 2023 the new normal?

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/24/2026 at 9:02 PM, JenkinsJinkies said:

That raises the question, if this fails to deliver then is this dry stretch since 2023 the new normal?

That's quite possible. The "new normal" could be long stretches of dry with intermittent periods of just deluges of precipitation. Look back to the winter of 2015/2016. It was largely dry in the frozen and liquid precipitation. Our one big event just happened to be a well timed snow storm. If it were off by a week it would've been three inches of rain in January.

[JenkinsJinkies]

[AnEndlessMaze]

On 10/24/2026 at 7:55 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off.

If you remove Isaias this feels like Oct. 2000 with the dryness. Maybe we’ll find out Super Duper El Ninos actually behave like a Nina.

I’ve been enjoying the beautiful weather though!

[nw baltimore wx]

I haven’t looked at the euro, but the 12z gfs should keep @JenkinsJinkies off the ledge for the afternoon. Of course, if you take it literally, then you’re signing up for potential disappointment.

[Paleocene]

33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I haven’t looked at the euro, but the 12z gfs should keep @JenkinsJinkies off the ledge for the afternoon. Of course, if you take it literally, then you’re signing up for potential disappointment.

Ha, came here to post that. You mean we aren't going to get two 2" rainstorms 3 days apart around Nov 5th? The ensembles seem vaguely interested in the period.