October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[dailylurker]

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks. 

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

[Benjamn3]

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

I remember doing a similar thing here in VA. I was cutting shooting lanes before deer season in mid September 2009 a little late for that but I was 20 and stupid lol. I was fussing about the lack of cold and snow, during fall and winter. Though I was also glad because I had just enlisted in The Marines, and it gave me some more time to train before I got to Paris Island in March…and we all know how 09-10 went. Haha 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

I was up there in January, 2025 when It was -5 with about 10" on the ground. It was awesome. 

[WxUSAF]

Definite first freeze potential D10-11 on several runs today for NW burbs and IAD

[soadforecasterx]

This looks like the type of scenario I can see playing out this winter.  A Close race between a cold shot and a big storm.

[frd]

 https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2108603993190478158

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week. 

Which is it's experimental forecast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Which is it's experimental forecast

They verify more often than they do not

[SnowenOutThere]

People are sleeping on what could be the first snowfall event of the season for parts of our subforum next weekend! Both the CMC, GFS, GFS AI, and GFS/CMC model ens are on board for accumulating snow for the ridges in WV, though the Euro hasn't bought on yet. The setup makes sense, a strong early season trough will spur upslope snow showers after the front passage with some aid from the Great Lakes. 

Currently, this is forecasted to take place during the night too which helps with thermals, though the GFS has them bottom out in the mid 20s so there's some room for front timing. Of course, this is still far out in the future and a weaker frontal passage, more progressive trough, or any number of factors could ruin the setup, but it's worth paying attention to for an early snow chase to see both fall foliage in the valleys and snow at the peaks. 

[midatlanticweather]

Euro says.. "no"

[midatlanticweather]

26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Euro says.. "no"

At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler.. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler.. 

You're seeing a fight between the trough being modeled progressively (Euro) and being held back (GFS). Here's Friday at 2pm on the GFS

That trough then drops south and nearly induces a coastal low to form as it tilts negatively. The Euro is on a different planet, as it doesn't ever have that energy detach fully from the more northward low.

The Euro AI is sort of in-between, with the low detaching and swinging south but not as intense

Still have a long ways to go but we should hopefully see consensus emerge mid-week. If the Euro AI to GFS envelope is right then it'll be time to look at the close range models to see topographic effects and possible places that'll snow.