October 2026

[NEG NAO]

POTENTIAL UNUSUAL POLAR VORTEX  STRETCHING/DISTRUPTION EARLY NOVEMBER

If this verifies later season stretching/disruptions become more likely and December might not be as warm overall as now expected

 

[MarcmmKU]

On 10/19/2026 at 9:12 AM, straphanger said:

We could use the break since the last month and change have been rather wet.  Nearly 5" at my station for the last 31 days.

At least I can keep the sprinklers on a bit longer with the projected AN temps into November.  I wonder what the chances are that NYC doesn't see a freeze until December at this point.

It is very likely nyc will not see a freeze until December. In recent years the first <= 32 F night in central park has gotten later and later. some years it doesnt happen until mid December.

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

POTENTIAL UNUSUAL POLAR VORTEX  STRETCHING/DISTRUPTION EARLY NOVEMBER

If this verifies later season stretching/disruptions become more likely and December might not be as warm overall as now expected

 

I've never heard of Polar Vortex stretching before. This is a made up term!

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I've never heard of Polar Vortex stretching before. This is a made up term!

google it - its not made up

AI Overview

 

A polar vortex stretching event occurs when the large, circular ring of freezing stratospheric air above the North Pole loses its tight shape, elongating or warping into an oval or multi-lobed form. [1, 2]

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

It is very likely nyc will not see a freeze until December. In recent years the first <= 32 F night in central park has gotten later and later. some years it doesnt happen until mid December.

The latest first freeze for LGA which is the UHI capital was 1-4-16. NYC snuck one in on 11-24-15.

The average first freeze for LGA since then has been 11-30 and NYC 11-20.

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2001	03-28 (2001)	31	12-23 (2001)	32	269
1998	03-22 (1998)	31	12-22 (1998)	24	274
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260

 

Data for November 24, 2015 through November 24, 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	37
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	35
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	33
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	32
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	31

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		226
Mean	03-25		11-30		249
Maximum	04-06 (2016)		01-04 (2016)		281
2025	03-23 (2025)	32	12-04 (2025)	25	255
2024	03-24 (2024)	32	11-30 (2024)	32	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	32	11-25 (2023)	32	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	03-01 (2020)		10-31 (2020)		218
Mean	03-28		11-20		236
Maximum	04-10 (2016)		12-09 (2016)		250
2025	04-09 (2025)	31	11-29 (2025)	32	233
2024	03-24 (2024)	31	11-30 (2024)	30	250
2023	03-30 (2023)	31	11-25 (2023)	30	239
2022	03-30 (2022)	29	11-19 (2022)	31	233
2021	04-03 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	233
2020	03-01 (2020)	25	10-31 (2020)	32	243
2019	03-18 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	29	234
2018	04-09 (2018)	32	11-14 (2018)	32	218
2017	03-23 (2017)	23	11-10 (2017)	25	231
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2015	04-01 (2015)	32	11-24 (2015)	32	236

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

It is very likely nyc will not see a freeze until December. In recent years the first <= 32 F night in central park has gotten later and later. some years it doesnt happen until mid December.

Heat Island effect - most areas away from the city will experience < 32 well before NYC

[MarcmmKU]

47 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Heat Island effect - most areas away from the city will experience < 32 well before NYC

Well yes obviously. Many places in the metro have already had a freeze. 

[MarcmmKU]

21 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Noaa Predictions VS. Actual Results

Why do they never forecast BN in the northeast. I know it’s a bad bet most years but is this the only reason?

[donsutherland1]

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -35.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.237 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.