October 2026 general discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

I can already see the models festering in their schemes to create a snow chance in October ... Probably continues to deepen as these successive fast moving cold knife air mass inserts eventually mean bouts of early Lake Effect cold/LR convection grapple and cat paws.  Post the 15th this all gestates into an actual snow chance perhaps.  Or not, but the synoptically cryo supportive.    **This isn't associated with ENSO

I should also add ... warm ups after these successive cold shots may be equally handsome

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Missed opportunity for the Spooky Season Discussion title

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[Prismshine Productions]

(also low key our birthday is the 19th so hoping Mother Nature gives a snowy birthday present)

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[Brewbeer]

I like that the thread title is not factually inaccurate.

[jlauderdal]

Euro AI and AIGFS like another system next weekend and beyond after the ridge moves out.  Similiar ideas with the GFS farther west than the Euro.

[rimetree]

Doesn't seem like we're done ramping up to an active fall. I'll take that 0z Euro run. Maybe the multi-year cycle of bore coming to an end.

[WxWatcher007]

This may be a setup for the Adirondacks to see first flakes by mid-October. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This may be a setup for the Adirondacks to see first flakes by mid-October. 

yup... I wrote about this stuff in that interim storm/Oct thread but since it's a qualitative on the month overall I'm putting it here:

Impressive +PNA index by October 10.  Does the PNAP respond ...?   

In November I'd say we're looking at an early winter trigger with this...   Mid October?  not so sure.  But it hearkens to mind an interesting aspect about our climate recency.

Multi-source/ heavily agreed upon +3 SD index and it's showing up on the actualized ensemble mean synoptic layouts, as an unusually deep and pervasive negative anomaly axis N/NE of HA in the Pacific.  It's also been been growing in coherence ... 

This strike me as a primitive telecon outlook/and attempt by the hemisphere to yet again ... snow in October.  

I gotta say... I saw it snow in October ..almost never in my first three decades living either in southern lower Michigan or SNE.  Since ~ 2005? at least half the Octobers, particularly in the last 15 years, have hosted either a snow or a cryo-supporting atmosphere.  Snowing in November has increased as well... though the startling earliness of Octobers - in no small part because it'll be snowing with still autumn foliage in the backdrops - is more impressive.    20 years worth ... let's see if we can add another October to the swelling sample size. 

[78Blizzard]

I'll sell that 87º the 12z GFS had for us on Friday.  GFS continues its warmista saga.

[Typhoon Tip]

Still, we're likely to average warmer than normal after Tues .. until that fropa late Friday or whenever that occurs.  It's a matter of how much.   Right now... 70s ought to do it.   The GFS flashed us with several runs the other day promoting a bigger show.  All we've really done since then is compress those heights - the ridge exertion is still technically there but yeah, the recent guidance are imposing more polar branch than priors.    

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch !!!! We knew 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch !!!! We knew 

 

it's been in the charts for days  yup.   

i looks shorter lived, however.   Pretty significant +PNA/+PNAP circulation mode sets up according to tele's and ext ens.   We'll see

[Brewbeer]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

looks shorter lived

yep, hoping for a stretch of AN weather next week, but it doesn't look like it's coming.  I've custom ordered paint for my 3 older vehicles to touch up some rust repairs I've been making.  Need a few days of warm, 70+ dry weather for the paint cure properly, and that doesn't look likely at this point in time.

[JACKASS]

23 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

yep, hoping for a stretch of AN weather next week, but it doesn't look like it's coming.  I've custom ordered paint for my 3 older vehicles to touch up some rust repairs I've been making.  Need a few days of warm, 70+ dry weather for the paint cure properly, and that doesn't look likely at this point in time.

You can get away with lower temps (50's is as low as you want to go), but Dry and Calm are mandatory.

Bugs are the biggest problem along with anything seeding out.

I actually prefer fall for painting.