TS Bertha

[NavarreDon]

NHC agrees, we have TS Bertha.


.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Agree with this, we will see what NHC says though.


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From a satellite presentation, I agree w/ the NHC upgrade to TS at 00z, sheared as it may be. 

Look at the last VIS, it seems one LLCC is moving farther away from the convection to the N, and it looks like there may be another LLCC to its WSW that is drifting SSW.  This is common for broad, nascent TCs -- more than one LLCC.

For a sheared system, I am surprised the convection on the downshear side is not more intense.  It has struggled to get to -75 C for cloud tops.  Often, sheared TCs have much colder convective tops (<-90 C) than even a mature hurricane as wind shear actually promotes more intense convection from dry air mid-level and better lapse rates hence stronger tstm updrafts.

Not the best looking TC on sat or radar, but they come in all sorts of types.  A spectrum, not one-size-fits-all!
Such a formatiom outside the MDR/deep tropics) is consistent for a strong El Nino year.

[NavarreDon]

From a satellite protestation, I agree w/ the NHC upgrade to TS at 00z, sheared as it may be. 

Look at the last VIS, it seems one LLCC is moving farther away from the convection to the N, and it looks like there may be another LLCC to its WSW that is drifting SSW.  This is common for broad, nascent TCs -- more than one LLCC.

For a sheared system, I am surprised the convection on the downshear side is not more intense.  It has struggled to get to -75 C for cloud tops.  Often, sheared TCs have much colder convective tops (
Not the best looking TC on sat or radar, but they come in all sorts of types.  A Spectrum, not one-size-fits-all!
Such a formatio outside the MDR/deep tropics) is consisten for a strong El Nino year.

Really great obs, quite frankly in a high storm year we all probably wouldn’t pay much attention to this storm. Bertha isn’t the prettiest, but she may be one of the few options to take home this year.


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[Prospero]

1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:

Really great obs, quite frankly in a high storm year we all probably wouldn’t pay much attention to this storm. Bertha isn’t the prettiest, but she may be one of the few options to take home this year.

Bertha has been beautiful, and fun. I was awakened at 3:11 AM on the 17th to a lightning show and rumbling boom and rumble thunder. It was intense and still an hour before a drop of rain fell on my house. All day Friday we had periods of rain and breeze from the mid-level swirl, lots of lightning. I wonder if the Sahara Dust that had been in our sky helped make circuits for Earth's static charge releases! One person told me they never experienced lightning like that here in Florida. And we are sometimes considered the "Lightning Capital" of the world. Yesterday the breeze got stronger, and a few TD bands came through. Today was about the air moving in the big swirl, respectable winds that were steady and the sky just kept moving by. It felt so good to be out in it. Three and half inches of rain since the initial 3 AM storm party on Friday. It's not a drought breaker by itself, but sure helps. Tonight the trees look full and happy for the first time since 2024 (Debbie, Helene, and Milton), and I see them twisting and dancing to the wind which I imagine helps them suck up rain from the ground and push into their limbs and leaves. 

We need these tropical systems every year to maintain ground water in Florida. Last year we had no tropical systems in the Gulf. Remember:



Bertha is drifting away from us in the Tampa Bay area, but what a welcome and desperately needed system to come by and visit. Whew. 

Its possible next week everything will be wilting again crying for rain. 

Storm damage in my yard? Yes, a dead rotten Live Oak branch fell on my Key West Lime tree breaking it off at the base. The branch I had not noticed hanging in the tree was a thudnest*. I heard it thud when it hit the ground in the rain yesterday. While it was still raining several species of birds appeared to have a feast on what I suspect were ants who had a nest in the branch. It was not the wind that brought the branch down, it was the weight of the rain and the thudnest was like a sponge soaking it up.

*Thudnest – A heavy dead limb filled with insect nests.




 

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep
convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and
limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant.
Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the
center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported
that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this
afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the
south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern
semicircle.

There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which
indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved
very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial
motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two
mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering
currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to
become the dominant steering influence which should induce a
west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction,
on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical
wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase during the next couple of days. This should limit
intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep
convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the
shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the
interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42
1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42
1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

I'm not sure there will be much left to track after about 60-72 hr as the entire circulation gets sheared apart.  HAFS-A/B do have any coherent sfc center by 72 hr.  You can see the deformation pulling it apart well at 850, 700, and 500 on the ECMWF RH/streamline fields.  NHC showing a trackable center from their 03z advisory at 96 and 120 hr seems optimistic IMHO.