Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[weatherwiz]

If I remember correctly too, some of the research on wildfires and influences on severe weather events is also based on the source of the wildfires (i.e. what is burning). Different burn sources are going to release different particulates into the air. And I think there is a big difference between what is burnt/released from Canadian fires versus what is burned and released within the western U.S. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

They made it all the way to southern NH and then disappeared 

I woke up to wet ground, so creeped into N fringe of MA.

[Hoth]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If I remember correctly too, some of the research on wildfires and influences on severe weather events is also based on the source of the wildfires (i.e. what is burning). Different burn sources are going to release different particulates into the air. And I think there is a big difference between what is burnt/released from Canadian fires versus what is burned and released within the western U.S. 

wasn’t there a high risk in the Plains some years back that busted badly and was attributed to wildfire smoke? 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

wasn’t there a high risk in the Plains some years back that busted badly and was attributed to wildfire smoke? 

I do recall something

[Torch Tiger]

massive bust.  so it goes

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Family cabin on Fying Pond

My ice fishing spot, near the forested island about 1/4 mile from the Rt 41 boat launch.

Three whiffs and we struck out yesterday.  (Or got smoked out)   Had a sprinkle at 10 AM but the opportunities at 6 and 10 PM offered nothing except some grumbles to scare our dog.  All 3 passed to our west.

[CT Valley Snowman]

52 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My ice fishing spot, near the forested island about 1/4 mile from the Rt 41 boat launch.

Three whiffs and we struck out yesterday.  (Or got smoked out)   Had a sprinkle at 10 AM but the opportunities at 6 and 10 PM offered nothing except some grumbles to scare our dog.  All 3 passed to our west.

Took 134 to the New Sharon Dunkin Donuts a few times this week.  Hard to beat the views as far as a quick car ride is concerned.  Taking the kids to hike Bald Mountain Preserve in Camden tomorrow morning.  Usually it's Bald Mountain or Mt Blue in Weld, but I'm out of hiking shape and we are looking to try something a bit different outside of the  Kennebec Highlands trails near us.  

  

[Winter Wizard]

I think it's pretty clear that the wildfire smoke was the main culprit for thunderstorm activity not occurring over Maine as it suppressed instability to an extent and created and maintained a mid-level cap. Doesn't seem like modeling picked up on that at all. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the lack of storms in Maine also meant that the environment S and W was untapped and contributed to overperformance farther south in NY, VT, and NH. The forcing was clearly there and this was close to being a much more destructive event. I think we got pretty lucky all things considered but numerous severe reports in this region doesn't constitute a total "bust" IMO.
 

[tamarack]

45 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Took 134 to the New Sharon Dunkin Donuts a few times this week.  Hard to beat the views as far as a quick car ride is concerned.  Taking the kids to hike Bald Mountain Preserve in Camden tomorrow morning.  Usually it's Bald Mountain or Mt Blue in Weld, but I'm out of hiking shape and we are looking to try something a bit different outside of the  Kennebec Highlands trails near us.  

  

Another Bald Mountain to consider is in Oquossoc, part of Rangeley.  It's about 1.3 miles with 900+feet elevation gain to the obs platform, which offers wonderful 360° views - Mooselook Lake to the West and Rangeley Lake to the east, plus lots of mountains.  Last time I climbed it was November 2021, with my son-in-law plus 6 of their 7 kids (the 2-y.o stayed home but the 5 y.o. had a blast) along with 2 neighbor kids.  It's a mile of uphill stroll thru forest then 0.3 miles of steeper, rockier but not vertigo steep, to the summit.

Not much smoke today, but surprisingly breezy along with the forecast lower TD.

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on a tstm 

Playing catch-up and just checking things now after a busy first part of the day.  Working from the posts last evening first.

Scott's just mad there was svr winds and tree downed on Rt 16 and in West Ossipee and he wasn't up at the lake!  

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

13 hail reports >= 1.25" last night. That's pretty damn impressive for the region

Yes, so I do not want to hear this is a complete bust! 

The daylight hours were and the smoke is the likely cause of the bust here, but again, there is far too much focus on what did *not* go right rather than what did! 

I can count on one hand how many times in the last 30 years that anywhere in New England has had golf ball sized hail between midnight and noon.

Bona fide supercells between midnight-noon in New England are rare.

And even thought the models overdid the overnight convection, it all quickly dissipated once near the MA border by 10z, which is exactly what the HRRR showed Tue eve.

So is the above just to be discounted?  Sometimes events do not work out at fcst, and I can't tell you how many times in the Midwest/Plains/Southeast on paper everything looks awesome for svr wx parameters and a HIGH risk is issued, and under-performs.  Things do not change meteorologically just b/c this is the NEUS.  Sure, volatile atmospheres like this are uncommon here, esp. a strong EML, but that is irrelevant as to if it works out all as fcst or not.

This is an excellent opportunity to learn from our mistakes, model shortcomings, and conditional factors that can crop up at the last minute (e.g. thick smoke).  I for one will be investigating/researching the role of wildfire smoke on convection now.  It was already mentioned earlier about how it impacts +CG frequency. 

And just b/c the smoke was a determinant to convection this time, does not necessarily mean it always is.  You need to ask, does it matter if it is thin or thick smoke?  Does the height and vertical depth of the smoke layer matter?  Not all smoke particulates are the same, so that does matter as to things like CCN (CoastalWx should appreciate this b/c he is big on sea salt CCN for OES! ).

Turn an experience that was not good or did not work out into something positive.  Experience is what you get when you don't get what you want/expect, and thus you are that much better off going forward!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

They made it all the way to southern NH and then disappeared 

Exactly what the HRRR fcst Tue eve.

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

If I remember correctly too, some of the research on wildfires and influences on severe weather events is also based on the source of the wildfires (i.e. what is burning). Different burn sources are going to release different particulates into the air. And I think there is a big difference between what is burnt/released from Canadian fires versus what is burned and released within the western U.S. 

See, you are already thinking ahead and abstract.  How can I use this experience to be a better uber weenie svr wx forecaster going forward?