Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure what the brown shading implies but I'm sure a tornado watch would be most likely. Kind of shocked though only 60% chance of issuance...but that is covering any potential for stuff to pop later afternoon. I think the real concern is more evening and early overnight so may be too early for a watch on that stuff. So we may see a watch soon and then more later 

The watch now would not be for the big stuff later I think.  Marginal svr is psbl this aftn in cntrl/nrn ME.  The tor box would be later for far nrn VT/NH, and NW ME.

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

@CoastalWx post earlier about watching southwest of where SPC has is looking good. Hourly runs of the HRRR are beginning to get a bit more aggressive with activity back across upstate NY, northern VT, and norther NH. Stuff may even get closer to central VT/NH. May see a southward expansion of the enhanced at 20z

WxWiz will do his best to apply "english" to the risk areas to nudge them closer to CT!  

[Cyclone-68]

The NWS removed the 30% for thunderstorms late tonight or tomorrow locally so that kinda sucks 

[OceanStWx]

41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Storms dying as they approach the border. 

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

HRRR tries to bring New Hampshire into the game overnight. 

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

For reference, the biggest hail in New England is 4"  in SW ME on 6/1/1986.  Here is the Storm Data entry.
 

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view.  The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007.  Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad.  Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice.  Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen.  Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted.  Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

[OceanStWx]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. 

Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

HRRR tries to bring New Hampshire into the game overnight. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we get severe elevated hail overnight given those morning soundings to our west. Plenty of support for that.

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view.  The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007.  Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad.  Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice.  Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen.  Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted.  Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

Wow, great reports!  "Leaf salad," LOL.  It is amazing how efficient large hail is shreding trees very quickly!

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. 

Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

Having the Doppler radars now in Canada really helps for NNE radar coverage, esp. since CXX is practically useless ern semicircle.   It still amazes me that the NWS was not allowed to put the CXX radar on a mountain top when it was installed in the late 90s.  This action thumbs its nose at protection of lives and property, and should override anything else in this case.

Was that due to VT State Regulations about towers on mountain tops?  It wasn't always that way, right?  Mt Mansfield has communication towers.

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Wow, great reports!  "Leaf salad," LOL.  It is amazing how efficient large hail is shreding trees very quickly!

All the hail that has fallen on our yard in 28 years (going on 29) would fit in a 2-pound coffee can.  I was sad to have missed the 2007 storm, but happy that I still had a garden.  

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Having the Doppler radars now in Canada really helps for NNE radar coverage, esp. since CXX is practically useless ern semicircle.   It still amazes me that the NWS was not allowed to put the CXX radar on a mountain top when it was installed in the late 90s.  This action thumbs its nose at protection of lives and property, and should override anything else in this case.

Was that due to VT State Regulations about towers on mountain tops?  It wasn't always that way, right?  Mt Mansfield has communication towers.

Well before my time, so I don't know.

But Canadians have dual-pol as well, so TDSs are possible to observe. I'm pretty sure I've seen a couple outside my forecast area.