July Medium/ Long Range

[frd]

WPC's afternoon update below has increased totals again for the Mid Atlantic region.

Here is a snippet from the AFD Mount Holly -  

 PWats
will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest
we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across
the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which
could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy
rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger
concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.

 

  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM thru 2pm Wed.

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z NBM thru 2pm Wed.

Continuation of the summer theme.  Same winners and losers over and over again.

[Jrlg1181]

17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Continuation of the summer theme.  Same winners and losers over and over again.

Agree with you.... 1.48 here for the entire month... Northern Waynesboro across the SNP into the western / northwestern areas of Albemarle is extremely dry and dusty now... Very very low water levels in the Moormans / Doyles river basins in north western Albemarle.... Not surprising thats where the extreme drought is still showing on the drought monitor... Loud thunder outside with zero rain again from a storm south of town where there have been repeated deluges this month...

[frd]

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, frd said:

We can only hope this is a preview of winter in the temp department.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We can only hope this is a preview of winter in the temp department.

Now why would that be the case, though? I mean it's gonna be overall above average, right? (I'd imagine December alone will ensure that, judging by previous super niños) I'm just hoping we can get a 10-day stretch or two of just cold enough...and get lucky.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now why would that be the case, though? I mean it's gonna be overall above average, right? (I'd imagine December alone will ensure that, judging by previous super niños) I'm just hoping we can get a 10-day stretch or two of just cold enough...and get lucky.

Because I have #FaithInTheFlakes­™.

[Maestrobjwa]

Layman prediction:

If we wanna see a classic region-wide 12" snowstorm before the end of this decade, it has to happen this winter. If it doesn't...for that kind of thing it'll be 29-30 before we have another chance. And that would be a new futility record...every decade from the 1900s had at least one. 2020s would be a first--even the least snowy ones like the 40s, 50s, and 70s. 

C'mon man...can we get at least one? I hope so.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Because I have #FaithInTheFlakes­™.

At no time in it's history has that slogan ever rung more hollow, lol I mean maybe for where HE lives! (Just over the M/D line)

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Layman prediction:

If we wanna see a classic region-wide 12" snowstorm before the end of this decade, it has to happen this winter. If it doesn't...for that kind of thing it'll be 29-30 before we have another chance. And that would be a new futility record...every decade from the 1900s had at least one. 2020s would be a first--even the least snowy ones like the 40s, 50s, and 70s. 

C'mon man...can we get at least one? I hope so.

I haven't had a normal snowfall season, let alone above normal, since moving to Maryland in August 2016. I don't see that changing this winter. Maybe we get lucky with a Jan 2016 redux that gives us a statistical win, but I'm not going to hold my breath anymore.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

At no time in it's history has that slogan ever rung more hollow, lol I mean maybe for where HE lives! (Just over the M/D line)

Agreed. The only faithful flakes I've had in my life are corn based and in my cereal box.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Layman prediction:

If we wanna see a classic region-wide 12" snowstorm before the end of this decade, it has to happen this winter. If it doesn't...for that kind of thing it'll be 29-30 before we have another chance. And that would be a new futility record...every decade from the 1900s had at least one. 2020s would be a first--even the least snowy ones like the 40s, 50s, and 70s. 

C'mon man...can we get at least one? I hope so.

If I had to make a Winter prediction it would slightly lean towards above average snowfall. The reason is the AO may be negative a lot of the time, and that combined with El Nino STJ can really produce some big storms. On the other side the Pacific is not looking El Nino like at all, -PNA dominates, so we could be looking at a Winter overall above average temp wise with possibly average to above average snowfall. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I haven't had a normal snowfall season, let alone above normal, since moving to Maryland in August 2016. I don't see that changing this winter. Maybe we get lucky with a Jan 2016 redux that gives us a statistical win, but I'm not going to hold my breath anymore.

Agreed. The only faithful flakes I've had in my life are corn based and in my cereal box.

I had my biggest Winter last year since returning from CA in 2017, 24" here. -AO was the reason for that: but it was a dry pattern. In normal precip we could have done better. 

Kind of disappointing the last 2 Winters have been cold with below average snowfall.