Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Feels like that wouldn’t even satisfy folks, as soon as the GFS shows a dry 7 days it’d be like a week of rain never happened.

Dendrite has PTSD from last year’s drought.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Stein here and derecho there. 

Two rain events sandwiched around a Steinmmer the rest of the time. Mem Day and the days after the 4th only real rains . Next one probably Labor Day 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Carol and Edna each dumped a lot of rain, but they were about a month apart.  The next year Connie/Diane combined for 12-22" in 8-9 days over much of SNE.  Of course, the 1954 hurricanes had far more wind.

How could I forget ‘55!

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Apples and oranges.

Dews…

We know this. 
 

Miami is +7 to that temp in terms of real feel, heat index, while Denver is -5.

So it’s really like 85 Denver, 97 Miami.
 

Yea that checks out….

 

No doubt. I just thought their average highs would be much lower. Of course Denver isn’t feeling like South Beach on July 10…That would be rough lol though I wonder if they’d take that over wildfire risk. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just lock in these days. Perfect summery day.

[vortex95]

On 7/9/2026 at 11:05 AM, CT Rain said:

It's funny that people think this is something nefarious.

The issue is that the weather graphics vendor most stations use (your former employer) have an almost impossible to figure out UI when it comes to building bar graphs and charts. TBH, it's why I don't show them very often. Obviously it shouldn't have been used but we're generally using horribly outdated equipment and graphics systems that are generally awful all around.

I wouldn't say nefarious, just misleading.  The psychological part of viewers is well-known, what gets attention, and what does not.  That's fine in itself, but as w/ anything, it can be abused or go off the rails.

Back in the day, wx at TV stations was largely left alone, and sometimes plain disrespected.  I interned at WNEV (now WHDH) in the late 80s, and I can't tell you how many times Harvey Leonard would get so ticked that they would cut the wx segment time 15 or 30 sec.  Whenever the newscast needed to be trimmed as it was occurring, it was *always* was w/ the wxcast!  This was regardless of what was going on currently or what was in the fcst.  Could have a big storm on the way, and time would be still cut.

Of course, that all changed after 1993 or so (Bliz of 93 was game changer).  It was discovered there was big ratings in wx, and it went rather quickly from not enough time or attention to the opposite extreme.  Wx became front and center in the newscast w/ endless teases and hits, and the amount of time an OCM had to actually put together fcst became less and less.  The workload increased considerably w/ more complex graphic systems, the Internet, and then later social media.  Wall-to-wall coverage for snowstorms or tornado warnings was never a routine thing, at least in the BOS TV market, until the later 90s.  It took an exceptional event, like Hurricanes Gloria and Bob, for continuous news coverage for a wx event.

Even CoastalWx became keen to this early on.  Ask him about, "Nor'easter 95!" The only big snowstorm in the otherwise terrible 1994-95 season!

I may sound like a curmudgeon at times, but that's not a inherently bad ting.  Just have the experience of how things have changed over time.  Change is inevitable, and it is not always bad, but things have become so crazy w/ wx over time, one is going to point things out, and yes, complain at times, esp. when it has to do w/ one's passion and profession!

[vortex95]

On 7/9/2026 at 12:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

OK I'll give them that, but then the person showing this should probably not even show this at all. At least wait a week. This should be common sense, I'm sure the public comments have laugh emojis and condescending remarks since they are well aware of the copious amounts of rain SNE got overall.

I can't tell you how many idiots out there claim this is govt manipulation and trying to control our water usage. This doesn't help.

I am not a fan of the US Drought Monitor.  I've seen a number of learned mets point out many times how mdt-svr drought conditions can exist when rainfall, soil moisture, reservoir levels, and the CMI/PMI are all solid, but *one* thing will be not good, such as snowpack, and that "ruins" it all.  Seen this in WA/OR a number of times the last few years.

I have little doubt there are political/social/economic factors that mess w/ the objectivity in some areas of the country.  Havig drought conditions (a "problem") is a way to funnel/siphon $$.  Declare a drought emergency, and that frees up state/federal funds, as one example.  In some regards, it has become racket IMHO.

[vortex95]

On 7/9/2026 at 6:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thankfully we ended with a hot and humid summer. Some knew and ACATT accepts defeat. 

 

He forget to mention BOS temp is running warm...

[vortex95]

On 7/10/2026 at 8:15 AM, weatherwiz said:

I still don't understand how ideas can be drawn on how a summer will be based on the concept of what *may* occur in terms of an ENSO event which is in the stages of development. 

That's b/c what "may" happen these days is all too often promoted as "WILL" happen!    Low probably events are teased as a done deal.

Also, we don't have many very strong El Ninos in the reliable period of record (since the sat era), so no way have we seen the full variance of what can happen w/ sensible wx in X or Y region.

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

 

 

The last time the city entered critical drought restrictions was in July 2024, when the Manchester Reservoir lost 7 feet of water over seven weeks amid drought conditions. Critical restrictions remained in effect for months afterward.

Initially, officials believed the drought caused the severe water loss. It was later determined the loss stemmed from a valve connecting Orr’s Pond and Manchester Reservoir — Attleboro’s two main drinking water sources — that had been left open longer and wider than it should have been. The valve was open for nearly two months.

Bad/poor land/water management is a factor, more than it is ever said!  It is the same for wildfires.  When you have/had a policy to put all fires out as much and quick as possible, that has short-term gain, but the long-term issue is that available fuel builds up over time, and eventually, you end up w/ far worse wildfires.  This the primary reason why we have seen so many massive wildfires in the U.S. and Canada in the last 10-15 years.  Decades of fire suppression has lead to this situation.

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

Carol and Edna each dumped a lot of rain, but they were about a month apart.  The next year Connie/Diane combined for 12-22" in 8-9 days over much of SNE.  Of course, the 1954 hurricanes had far more wind.

Carol and Edna were only 10 days apart.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

question is ... how much of this survives an over-the-top delivery before the flow collapses into and around that autumn pattern later next week... 

 

Never seen sub 545 dm SPV over N Quebec, doing so in mid/late July nearing the perennial hottest time of the climate year, but the GFS is just getting more and more absurd ... not backing off, as we get closer.  This 120 hours... uuuusally when the amplitude starts to normalize.  We'll see tomorrow but jesus christ with this beast!

 

Euro's 10 or so dm shallower but still depicting the highly anomalous SPV, too.  It's not just that ... the west-NW Euro heat wave and associated ridging is paradoxical to that. The teleconnector correlations are in anti.     kind of fascinating...   It appears that what's going on is a very powerful -NAO, perhaps record breaking for summer ... **but** because it is situated so far E some of it's mass is lapsed outside the NAO domain space, so when calculating the EOFs ... we're missing something. Only getting these -1.5 type SD numerology from the agencies that calculate it. Meanwhile, this trough you see over eastern Canada is actually part of the same large scale wave structure - in and of itself highly unusual for summer months.   These features are just exotically amplified overall.   what the f chuck!

part of my wild imagination is that the models are just expressing some sort of desperate attempt at budgeting/explaining CC on some level. Because... if it were as hot in Europe, to then shallow that trough over eastern Canada, they'd have to go ahead and admit we're at the 1.5C threshold now.  ha.   

7/1/1988.  546 low over NNE.  4" of snow on MWN for its largest summer snowfall on record. 34 for a low at Barre Falls MA this day.  And this occurred during one of most brutal summers for heat and drought in the CONUS on record.

WxWiz is probably wondering..."I bet there were tons of low-topped tstms this day w/ hail!"  Yes, there were!

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

7/1/1988.  546 low over NNE.  4" of snow on MWN for its largest summer snowfall on record. 34 for a low at Barre Falls MA this day.  And this occurred during one of most brutal summers for heat and drought in the CONUS on record.

WxWiz is probably wondering..."I bet there were tons of low-topped tstms this day w/ hail!"  Yes, there were!

 

Yeah.. the part of I left out about that - because few people in here read anything longer than a blurb anyway - is that the surrounding medium is very warm.  Comparing to your example, 582 to 584-ish non-hydrostats over Colorado is lot different than trying to run a 542 dm core up there when there's heights nearing 600 just west of Chicago like what the GFS was selling as near-by as 120 hours.  

The gradient is unusual for mid summer - mechanically contributing to why there is a such a long wave lengths ( also, highly unusual at this time of year) between eastern Canada and the Urals of eastern Europe - another point I was making. 

Under the radar bigger anomalies because they don't affect people directly - perhaps - but they're there nonetheless. 

May all be a moot conversation anyway...  I suspect the GFS is over amplified with the dipole between Iowa and N QUE.   I would bet on the 597 dm hgts in IA before I would bet on the <545 dm heights up there.     I just check the euro and it's backing off that idea up there on this 12z so we'll see but it's likely it was a bs.       

I've been watching the GFS for year do this. I think it's too efficient or something with the pseudo adiabatic machinery ( physically).  Because it over produces height falls ivo troughs and then ends up with surpluss depth..  It then tends to accumulate ( talking about the operational version) out in time such that by D10 ... ( when it doesn't matter anyway hahaha), it's consummately deeper than every other guidance since incense burners sniffed glue. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ensembles which should only be used at this lead time are nothing like that 

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles which should only be used at this lead time are nothing like that 

Are you referring to the cold low in Quebec?  ECMWF at 90 hr shows the same as the GFS in terms of depth.