forkyfork Posted Friday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:51 PM thinking about the backyard snow people sitting there squinting at nino graphs looking for a tenth of a degree difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted Friday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:08 PM sst’s show a strong cooling trend actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted Friday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:10 PM Can’t wait for the UAH spike. going to be a rough year for the deniers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted Friday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:11 PM have you considered that it is good to be boiled alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Friday at 02:15 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:15 PM 3 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: have you considered that it is good to be boiled alive we have roni'd the boiling point of water to 327 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted Friday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:19 PM Good money if you can get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted Friday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:24 PM driving down the wrong side of the highway at 120 mph and explaining to my terrified passengers that i’m doing a modoki event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Friday at 02:29 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:29 PM oh man my bank account is down to $47 better roni it to six figures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:30 PM sudoku event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted Friday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:45 PM Hopefully CAD doesn’t ruin the Christmas torch. If its going to be mild or warm, I want BBQ and pool weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:32 PM As long as we have the strong El Niño cool summer then it’s all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Friday at 05:18 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:18 PM by this point in 1997 my area had two 90 degree days and so far this year we have 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Friday at 05:21 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:21 PM maybe we can roni it down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted Saturday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:41 AM Roses are red Violets aren't blue No matter what happens The snow you desire won't happen for you 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Saturday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:20 PM The weenie cope and wishcasting this year has been unlike anything I’ve ever seen in all my years of being a weather hobbyist. Off the charts….There’s no way we are getting a super El Niño. It’s only going to be weak or moderate, too close to 2023’s super event. It’s a Modoki. Ok, it’s only going to peak at moderate. It’s going to turn into a Modoki. The April WWB is weakening and falling apart. There’s La Niña hangover and the easterlies and trades will be fighting back at the end of April and May. The sea level heights aren’t rising in the EPAC. The April DWKW is weakening, falling apart and it’s not going to be a record breaker. There’s not going to be westerlies and another WWB in May/June. What westerlies? The subsurface isn’t going to be record breaking, the subsurface is not that impressive, it’s cooling off. The SSTs aren’t warming at all. The SSTs are lagging, not impressive. The MJO is going to get stuck in the Niña phases and not make it into the Pacific. The MJO is going into the COD. Where’s the ERWs? The warm pool is stuck in the WPAC and not moving. The models are losing the triplet and twin cyclones, not happening. It’s not coupling at all. There’s no coupling! The SOI isn’t going to stay in El Niño mode, it’s not cooperating at all, it’s stuck in Niña mode. There isn’t going to be another DWKW in June. Where’s the -SOI? It’s going to rapidly weaken to neutral by winter. It’s going to peak very early. All the models are way too warm, warm bias and are overamping it. The models are going to back off. The OLR and convection isn’t cooperating, it’s staying in the eastern IO and Maritime Continent. There’s going to be a -IOD. The ++PMM isn’t going to force an east-based event. It looks central based. Where’s the STJ?…..The atmosphere is Niña-like. The PDO is negative, it’s not going to allow a super event. -PDO is fighting it. And on and on….. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Monday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:49 PM this super will be beginning of the end for the ole easternuswx weenie set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago It is pretty much Ben Noll's X feed in the other thread, with like 2 or 3 others sprinkled in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago it's not like you're going to make any good posts about the ongoing kelvin wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago It isn't like you will ever make a good post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, FPizz said: It is pretty much Ben Noll's X feed in the other thread, with like 2 or 3 others sprinkled in. It’s going to be so much fun watching your snow and cold obsessed weenie ass squirm this winter. Seeing your disappointment is going to be amazing. Not going to lie, I’m going to get immense joy, laughter and satisfaction out of it. I can’t wait, looking forward to it! Lmfaoooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It’s going to be so much fun watching your snow and cold obsessed weenie ass squirm this winter. Seeing your disappointment is going to be amazing. Not going to lie, I’m going to get immense joy, laughter and satisfaction out of it. I can’t wait, looking forward to it! Lmfaoooooo Ah come on S19 ….. in our UHI warm ocean hugging coastal plain environment …. At best …. that’ll be a cheap high. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago On 12/31/2025 at 7:45 AM, snowman19 said: It’s starting to look like a +TNH develops maybe just after we pass mid-January into late January. The caveat with +TNH patterns is that they are also correlated with +AO (+NAM), +NAO and a healthy SE ridge. So, while certainly arctic cold, it’s not going to be a “KU” pattern with ‘big dog’ snowstorms up the I-95 corridor, DC-BOS as some folks on twitter are saying…. On 1/4/2026 at 9:17 AM, snowman19 said: It looks to me like we are still following a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña winter progression this month and we have been following one to a tee since late November. They are biased cold/snowy in the east from late November through mid-late January, then they flip to cold/snowy in the west for February. As of right now, I see no reason to think we deviate from the normal progression going forward On 1/5/2026 at 11:11 AM, snowman19 said: Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms…. On 1/7/2026 at 8:57 AM, snowman19 said: This is showing a strong SE ridge signal for February: On 1/7/2026 at 12:02 PM, snowman19 said: I’m becoming very confident that there is going to be a SE ridge for February, the question will be how much of a SE ridge that month? On 1/16/2026 at 5:25 PM, snowman19 said: IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure… On 1/19/2026 at 5:50 PM, snowman19 said: This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November pepperidge farm remembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 41 minutes ago, Cobalt said: pepperidge farm remembers And? Your point? You’re another one of the snow and cold obsessed weenie assholes I’m going to throughly enjoy watching squirm this winter. It’s going to be 7th Heaven trolling you and the others all winter long. A dream come true. Can’t wait to see your tears. Have a beautiful day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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