super el nino banter thread

[forkyfork]

thinking about the backyard snow people sitting there squinting at nino graphs looking for a tenth of a degree difference

[Santa Claus]

sst’s show a strong cooling trend actually

[LakePaste25]

Can’t wait for the UAH spike. going to be a rough year for the deniers.

[Santa Claus]

have you considered that it is good to be boiled alive

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

have you considered that it is good to be boiled alive

we have roni'd the boiling point of water to 327 degrees

[LakePaste25]

Good money if you can get it

 

[Santa Claus]

driving down the wrong side of the highway at 120 mph and explaining to my terrified passengers that i’m doing a modoki event

[forkyfork]

oh man my bank account is down to $47 better roni it to six figures

[Santa Claus]

sudoku event

[LakePaste25]

Hopefully CAD doesn’t ruin the Christmas torch. If its going to be mild or warm, I want BBQ and pool weather 

[roardog]

As long as we have the strong El Niño cool summer then it’s all good. 

[forkyfork]

by this point in 1997 my area had two 90 degree days and so far this year we have 10

[forkyfork]

maybe we can roni it down

[raindancewx]

Roses are red

Violets aren't blue

No matter what happens

The snow you desire won't happen for you

[snowman19]

The weenie cope and wishcasting this year has been unlike anything I’ve ever seen in all my years of being a weather hobbyist. Off the charts….There’s no way we are getting a super El Niño. It’s only going to be weak or moderate, too close to 2023’s super event. It’s a Modoki. Ok, it’s only going to peak at moderate. It’s going to turn into a Modoki. The April WWB is weakening and falling apart. There’s La Niña hangover and the easterlies and trades will be fighting back at the end of April and May. The sea level heights aren’t rising in the EPAC. The April DWKW is weakening, falling apart and it’s not going to be a record breaker. There’s not going to be westerlies and another WWB in May/June. What westerlies? The subsurface isn’t going to be record breaking, the subsurface is not that impressive, it’s cooling off. The SSTs aren’t warming at all. The SSTs are lagging, not impressive. The MJO is going to get stuck in the Niña phases and not make it into the Pacific. The MJO is going into the COD. Where’s the ERWs? The warm pool is stuck in the WPAC and not moving. The models are losing the triplet and twin cyclones, not happening. It’s not coupling at all. There’s no coupling! The SOI isn’t going to stay in El Niño mode, it’s not cooperating at all, it’s stuck in Niña mode. There isn’t going to be another DWKW in June. Where’s the -SOI? It’s going to rapidly weaken to neutral by winter. It’s going to peak very early. All the models are way too warm, warm bias and are overamping it. The models are going to back off. The OLR and convection isn’t cooperating, it’s staying in the eastern IO and Maritime Continent. There’s going to be a -IOD. The ++PMM isn’t going to force an east-based event. It looks central based. Where’s the STJ?…..The atmosphere is Niña-like. The PDO is negative, it’s not going to allow a super event. -PDO is fighting it.

And on and on…..