2026 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

On the board

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 (1)
Hurricanes: 3 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 1 (0)

[JenkinsJinkies]

This year won’t be it but I wonder how much longer until we get another Irene like storm track?

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

We have homebrew potential in the Gulf as an area of low pressure has formed in the northern part of the region and is producing persistent disorganized convection. 

The NHC has taken note, and the odds of development have gradually risen to 30%. 

The key inhibitor here is time, although the guidance has pointed to a more modest development signal, this is likely to be onshore near the Texas/LA border in 48-72 hours. Generally speaking, however, the conditions do seem to be favorable with very warm SSTs (not thinking about OHC needed to sustain a strong system given proximity to land and timing) in the northern Gulf. 

There is dry air to its north, and that could also be an inhibiting factor, but so far that hasn't prevented consistent convection, which has been deep at times. The more consistent deep convection can be, the more likely we see eventual pressure falls and the tightening of the low pressure. However, should dry air make an intrusion it could disrupt any progress toward organization into a TC. 

Importantly, shear is low in the basin. In fact, it's basically the only place in the Atlantic that has a large enough area of low shear to have a meaningfully large enough window for development. That's consistent with my peak season forecast, but we'll see if it leads to another short lived TC here.

Shear may be kept at bay, but the signal is a bit mixed on whether we see some southerly shear eventually develop. Overall, I think this is a legitimate homebrew opportunity for a weak tropical storm that would impact the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days. I think there's a good chance 97L has slightly increased odds and is an orange for the 2pm outlook. 

Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana 
have become more concentrated. However, current surface observations 
indicate that the system has not yet strengthened. Slow development 
of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it 
drifts westward to west-northwestward across the northern Gulf. 
Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Up to 50% odds 

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Up to 50% odds 

Any chance this home brew nut punches this death ridge and maybe somehow pulls in some cold air from Canada (are we calling it something else now?) and gives me highs in the 50s? 

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Any chance this home brew nut punches this death ridge and maybe somehow pulls in some cold air from Canada (are we calling it something else now?) and gives me highs in the 50s? 

Unfortunately, I don't think it will. I don't see a lot of ridge erosion on the guidance. Might need to wait until mid-month.  

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is heading into the Invest now. Given its appearance, this should be a TC before it reaches the coast. 

[WxWatcher007]

Radar looks pretty intriguing. If it can wrap the deeper convection fully it has a chance to be more than a minimal TS.

[WxWatcher007]

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 (2)
Hurricanes: 3 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 1 (0)

Dolly, Edouard

[WxWatcher007]

[MN Transplant]

Find someone that loves you as much as tropical systems love the TX/LA border region

[WxUSAF]

[George BM]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looking at satellite loops of the tropical Atlantic it looks like June 6th convection-wise not September 6th.

[George BM]

It's time for the increasingly annual tradition! 

Happy Peak Season everybody! 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[midatlanticweather]

And today we tied the record for the longest the season has gone without a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. That record should be broken tomorrow and extended quite a ways into the future 

 

[WxWatcher007]

We have a lemon. Good signal on guidance for some development.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association 
with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. 
While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for 
development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected 
to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual 
development by the middle to later portion of this week. The 
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the 
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Katz/Brown

[Mikeymac5306]

Fantasy Land GFS today has a buzzsaw at 928 going through Cuba and up the east Florida coast. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

We now have Fay, which breaks our tropical drought, albeit in a very weird part of the basin. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 (3)
Hurricanes: 3 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 1 (0)

Dolly, Edouard, Fay

Fay is actually doing more than holding its own after struggling yesterday, and the NHC has taken note, predicting it gets to 50kt (60mph). This is a good looking structure, and this one could be an overperformer. Obviously I have a rooting interest.  

 

But I want to take a few minutes to talk about some possible east coast action in the coming days. There's been a signal for a few days now for a coastal storm development pattern over then next two weeks. A signal has emerged for an area of low pressure to form off the east coast around midweek. 

Across guidance you see a similar theme--our low starts out a sprawling mess, but eventually consolidates into a pretty decent coastal storm. 

This is the 06z Euro

And the surface result

 

Now, it's important to note, I'm not talking about anything purely tropical here. This is more baroclinic than anything. But given the location of development, there may be some tropical influence making this a subtropical or hybrid low, and these can be very impactful storms. 

The GFS and AI guidance so far today have been more bullish on possible subtropical development. 

 

Regardless, this is the kind of low that could cause some legitimate issues, first with coastal flooding. Everything suggests that if something forms close enough to the coast it's going to meander and bring persistent onshore flow. That could lead to significant coastal flooding. Second, rainfall. Depending on where this tracks, areas could see significant rainfall. Finally, this looks to be a windy event, especially at the coast, due to the possible intensity of the storm and a pressure gradient. 

06z GFS

06z Euro

 

As I mentioned, the AI guidance has been even more bullish, at least for now, in developing a potent coastal. But they've favored areas northeast. Still, the onshore flow could cause issues up and down the coast. 

 

Bottom line is we do have something to track, for now at least. Intensity and track are still TBD, but there's a growing signal for some type of significant coastal storm in the coming days. 

[WxWatcher007]

Fay is actually overperforming. NHC now saying it's going to be close to hurricane strength. 

[WxWatcher007]

Look at Fay…