2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

 Is 99L going to be the first TC formation of the month? Edouard became a TC in August. When was the last Sept that didn’t have a TC formation by now? 2025 took til Sep 17th.

 1976 didn’t have one that later became a TS til the TD that formed on 9/26 and that became TS Gloria on 9/27. And there was a ST storm on Sept 13th. So, that doesn’t count as a TC. However, 1976 also had 2 TCs that maxed out as only TDs early in Sep. in the satellite era.

 So, even if a TD is declared today, 2026 has already beaten 2025 for the latest 1st TC declared in Sept. during the satellite era. Now, if it becomes a TS, that would mean that 1976 would remain the season with the latest first named TS in Sept. in the satellite era, which is Sept 27th.

[GaWx]

99L is now a cherry:

1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since 
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. However, just a small 
increase in organization is likely to result in the formation of a 
tropical depression as soon as later today. The system is expected 
to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining southwest of 
the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week, 
when environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable 
for additional development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[GaWx]

 Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible:

 This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season:

 

 

 These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then:

1902:

1899:

 

1896:

 

1888:

 

1877:

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember vividly the declarations of ever increasing disaster during the Katrina year.  Has not happened and various drivers of our patterns have changed a lot in last 25 years 

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.

The signal that Katrina  was the sure sign of global warming causing ever increasing destruction to the USA was Gore style hype. 

[yoda]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

99L is now a cherry:

1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since 
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. However, just a small 
increase in organization is likely to result in the formation of a 
tropical depression as soon as later today. The system is expected 
to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining southwest of 
the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week, 
when environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable 
for additional development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Nothing at 5pm

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The signal that Katrina  was the sure sign of global warming causing ever increasing destruction to the USA was Gore style hype. 

 There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans.
 

 Indeed, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. It used to be that ~79F was a crucial SST to support TCG. Is that crucial SST going to warm up due to GW?

Your thoughts?

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Special update increased odds of 99L developing to 60% and that seems low given satellite. To me I’m not sure how this isn’t a depression at least but I think it is classified as such at 5 regardless 

Convection has not been persistent enough.  For developing systems, you do not want irregular blobs pulsing.  There has been no curved banding evident yet for the system.  1016 mb c.p. shows a high environmental pressure field w/ synoptic gradient weak from the high centers to its NE and W

99L is in a very narrow margin area.  Look at the WV loop attached,  Strong shear evident t toe S, more starting to press in from the NW, and deformation zones N-W-S.  18z SHIPS output environment is not good.  Shear is high and 700-500 RH quite low..
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al992026/stext/26091818AL9926_ships.txt
 

Intensity models usually for nascent systems are bullish in taking them to min TS quickly, but about half of them currently do not even do that.  A testament to this Atlantic season I suppose when nothing can go "right!"

TD status appears mdt-high, but TS is more of challenge.

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Convection has not been persistent enough.  For developing systems, you do not want irregular blobs pulsing.  There has been no curved banding evident yet for the system.  1016 mb c.p. shows a high environmental pressure field w/ synoptic gradient weak from the high centers to its NE and W

99L is in a very narrow margin area.  Look at the WV loop attached,  Strong shear evident t toe S, more starting to press in from the NW, and deformation zones N-W-S.  18z SHIPS output environment is not good.  Shear is high and 700-500 RH quite low..
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al992026/stext/26091818AL9926_ships.txt
 

Intensity models usually for nascent systems are bullish in taking them to min TS quickly, but about half of them currently do not even do that.  A testament to this Atlantic season I suppose when nothing can go "right!"

TD status appears mdt-high, but TS is more of challenge.

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