2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

 Is 99L going to be the first TC formation of the month? Edouard became a TC in August. When was the last Sept that didn’t have a TC formation by now? 2025 took til Sep 17th.

 1976 didn’t have one that later became a TS til the TD that formed on 9/26 and that became TS Gloria on 9/27. And there was a ST storm on Sept 13th. So, that doesn’t count as a TC. However, 1976 also had 2 TCs that maxed out as only TDs early in Sep. in the satellite era.

 So, even if a TD is declared today, 2026 has already beaten 2025 for the latest 1st TC declared in Sept. during the satellite era. Now, if it becomes a TS, that would mean that 1976 would remain the season with the latest first named TS in Sept. in the satellite era, which is Sept 27th.

[GaWx]

99L is now a cherry:

1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since 
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. However, just a small 
increase in organization is likely to result in the formation of a 
tropical depression as soon as later today. The system is expected 
to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining southwest of 
the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week, 
when environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable 
for additional development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[GaWx]

 Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible:

 This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season:

 

 

 These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then:

1902:

1899:

 

1896:

 

1888:

 

1877:

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember vividly the declarations of ever increasing disaster during the Katrina year.  Has not happened and various drivers of our patterns have changed a lot in last 25 years 

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.