On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that’s a sharp gradient. Not sure I buy a lot of snow here but it’s close.

[CoastalWx]

Toss those clown ice maps far and wide 

[UnitedWx]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

Gotta replace my shovel dammit.  Just hoping ice stays away or doesn’t otherwise impact life.  NAM was a crazy run!

Yeah, my "lifetime" back saver lasted two storms.  Unfortunately for them, I save EVERY receipt 

[UnitedWx]

49 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Really hoping the heaviest precip trends north a bit

Please,  take it. I'm done with ice. Took o e step outta my van yesterday and fell on my ass... and I never fall. Well, shoulder actually and it still hurts this A.M. Been repaired before also...

[CoastalWx]

This thing has convection which may not allow a lot of north pull. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Snowy

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any chance BOX upgrades to warnings for some?

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Please,  take it. I'm done with ice. Took o e step outta my van yesterday and fell on my ass... and I never fall. Well, shoulder actually and it still hurts this A.M. Been repaired before also...

Dude we got to be careful. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Snowy

Epic EPS for you guys.  Lots of sleet on Mesos though 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah.  It’s gonna be a mess regardless

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  It’s gonna be a mess regardless

I would like to see 12z come in with qpf of one inch or greater though for major problems

[ineedsnow]

Pretty sure that's why box is going with advisories for now and haven't upgraded.  Plus not sure on reaching warning amounts for one specific type.. either way a disaster commute incoming

[Damage In Tolland]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss those clown ice maps far and wide 

No ice?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

No ice?

There will be ice but probably half of what those maps show. Need temps a bit lower and lower dews to move in.. it might help having  a NE wind also 

[jbenedet]

A lot of that “rain” on guidance SoP, I think in actuality will be freezing rain.
 

To me, it’s a classic case of take the under on surface temps and the over on 950 mb -850 mb warm layer.

 
I certainly wouldn’t be taking the guidance verbatim at the surface with how cold this year has been north of the boundary…

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No ice?

The paranoia begins 

[jbenedet]

Classic cold tuck. This season? 
 

Gonna be freezing down to NYC metro

[jbenedet]

Guidance looks way too warm at the surface today. No idea how temps rise much from here with north winds already being felt down to Hartford and clouds thickening up…

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I haven't looked at this closely at all but from what ive seen it doesn't seem conservative at all to me, if anything its bullish on the snow. 

I dont see this producing any accumulating snow south of 90

Not saying this NWS map is right or what id go with, just compared to what little ive looked at this and whats out there its on the higher end snowfall wise. 

I got the impression it was conservative based on this place....I hadn't seen other maps when I did mine. I agree not much snow SOP...the "up to an inch" is just to cover my ass because IP counts.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got the impression it was conservative based on this place....I hadn't seen other maps when I did mine. I agree not much snow SOP...the "up to an inch" is just to cover my ass because IP counts.

Good map.Sleet may cut your totals for a while but 6 is a good number. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Good map.Sleet may cut your totals for a while but 6 is a good number. 

Yea, well the range accounts for that...more IP would be 3", less results in closer to 6". Just glad the icing will be SW of me.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The paranoia begins 

If Scooter thinks no ice.. you do worry . He sets the morning tone here 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If Scooter thinks no ice.. you do worry . He sets the morning tone here 

I never said that you dummy.

[CoastalWx]

Mann HRRR trying to look violent.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats AEMATT and Woody 

Gfs , Rap, Nam.. models you may not want in your corner 

[CoastalWx]

The pros  of icing for Kevin are a stout northeast wind and not stagnant air. The cons are that I don’t really think it’ll be much colder than like 31.5 maybe. So I don’t know how much icing you could get maybe it’s right around 32.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Mann HRRR trying to look violent.

Southern ORH hills may not have power for a bit...

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The pros  of icing for Kevin are a stout northeast wind and not stagnant air. The cons are that I don’t really think it’ll be much colder than like 31.5 maybe. So I don’t know how much icing you could get maybe it’s right around 32.

We hope the pros win 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The pros  of icing for Kevin are a stout northeast wind and not stagnant air. The cons are that I don’t really think it’ll be much colder than like 31.5 maybe. So I don’t know how much icing you could get maybe it’s right around 32.

Yea, if his hill were closer to the source, like up in my area, he'd get his wish and be eating PB & J in the dark for a few days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like that my area is on the northern edge of the main snow area on guidance because despite the seasonal trend, I would still want some wiggle room for mid levels to verify a bit warmer. I could also see lower levels verifying colder than modeled, but think the correction vector maybe warmer aloft.