Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[NVAwx]

How was the model performance for the blizzard in Hampton Roads that never materialized?

Legit question. Weren’t they expecting 12-18 the day or morning before?


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[balltermen]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

you still have time to delete this 

[jayyy]

Thinking we see the “middle of the road” solution on this euro run. Improved but not GFS like. That’s 12z tomorrow

[bncho]

Just now, balltermen said:

you still have time to delete this 

no way 

[Nomz]

Just now, jayyy said:

Thinking we see the “middle of the road” solution on this euro run. Improved but not GFS like. That’s 12z tomorrow

If we get painted with anything close to 6" in the cities i'll be so happy

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

If we get painted with anything close to 6" in the cities i'll be so happy

Digital snow is better than actual sleet 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, NVAwx said:

How was the model performance for the blizzard in Hampton Roads that never materialized?

Legit question. Weren’t they expecting 12-18 the day or morning before?


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Bro. No one here is paying attention to Hampton Roads...

[jayyy]

How was the model performance for the blizzard in Hampton Roads that never materialized?

Legit question. Weren’t they expecting 12-18 the day or morning before?


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Literally irrelevant. Does that mean every time models get a storm right we should also assume they’ll be right next time? Different storm, different setup, different literal everything. Why even compare?

It was cloudy this morning. Guess that means I’ll be dropping a solid deuce at dusk. (Roughly the same degree of correlation)

[Nomz]

Just now, balltermen said:

Digital snow is better than actual sleet 

i dunno that heavy sleet got me a lot of days off school

[IUsedToHateCold]

It's time.

[NVAwx]

Literally irrelevant. Does that mean every time models get a storm right we should also assume they’ll be right next time? Different storm, different setup, different literal everything. Why even compare?

It was cloudy this morning. Guess that means I’ll be dropping a solid deuce at dusk. (Roughly the same degree of correlation)

[WEATHER53]

12 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Ha. Been the last few years (was beautiful). Just a quick weekend conference, DC in February was not my first choice!

Whats the timing of this looking? May split the difference and try for an earlier morning flight. 

Lake Effect King still participate?

[bncho]

FYI I don't have access to SV so PBP will be a bit more slow. Here are a few things to expect:

1. I'm a JV PBPer. Like I'm the benchwarmer for the benchwarmer.

2. This means I may get things wrong. I will try to be as accurate and as "making sure I'm right" as possible, but I may slip through the cracks.

3. If the Euros are bad don't blame me, I'm the messenger!

[jayyy]

Yes we do care about HR. We have gotten the shaft all winter. Need some love. Running out of storms this winter. 

What? I’m not talking about Hampton Roads or specific locations. What I’m saying is that models “showing a blizzard for HR that never materialized last time” is irrelevant to this current storm.

[bncho]

Euro AI running

[Steckstacks]

Aren’t you guys well above your average and sometimes have winters with no snow at all? I get being frustrated though I always want more snow


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[VBweather]

Just now, jayyy said:

What? I’m not talking about Hampton Roads or specific locations. What I’m saying is that models “showing a blizzard for HR that never materialized last time” is irrelevant to this current storm.

Meant to respond further up sorry 

[bncho]

AIFS no good. Tick east

[VBweather]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bro. No one here is paying attention to Hampton Roads...

Yes we do care about HR. We have gotten the shaft all winter. Need some love. Running out of storms this winter. 

[NVAwx]

AIFS out? That’s a wrap.

[balltermen]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

FYI I don't have access to SV so PBP will be a bit more slow. Here are a few things to expect:

1. I'm a JV PBPer. Like I'm the benchwarmer for the benchwarmer.

2. This means I may get things wrong. I will try to be as accurate and as "making sure I'm right" as possible, but I may slip through the cracks.

3. If the Euros are bad don't blame me, I'm the messenger!

take your time.  SV initialized at 12:13. I won't step on your  pbp. plus we always have maps at the end. Godspeed young man 

[DDweatherman]

Unreal how many times were mid decent trend in the right direction at 18z euro wise, then it just goes way in the tiger direction at 0 with the ai and parent. 

[Nomz]

Definitely copium but we are leaving the AIFS's reliable range

[bncho]

Onto the Euro

0z very similar to 18z thru hour 18

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Definitely copium but we are leaving the AIFS's reliable range

Of course, but that doesn’t mean less accuracy closer in. It means broader brush precip and edges 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, VBweather said:

Yes we do care about HR. We have gotten the shaft all winter. Need some love. Running out of storms this winter. 

Dude you live in the Bahama's compared to me. And you have more snow than me. Go TF away.

[balltermen]

[balltermen]

Kidding.  it's only out like 30 hours. 

[bncho]

The AI is actually fine for now. Well within the 18z EPS AI's range and is like a 50 mile tick east. It can come back, don't worry

[wxmeddler]

AIFS brings in the Alberta s/w faster and thus is later with the phase. It takes longer / further east to go negative tilt. Ironically, the opposite of the direction of the trends with the GFS/NAM with the alberta s/w lagging behind and not interacting with the southern stream, and acting as more like a kicker.