“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[ineedsnow]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Both ai and eps ensemble west of 18z.

Someone seems interested now

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

Note those totals include Friday/night.

[moneypitmike]

My p/c for Friday night calls for 3-5"; ZFP "moderate accumulations".    I'll have to bask in that.

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS looking better

[ineedsnow]

Eastern Maryland and southern NJ getting destroyed

[ineedsnow]

We get another bump like that at 12z we blizzard!

[ineedsnow]

Eastern Ma getting nailed but the rest of us getting a good storm

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS AI slightly west of 12z but just brushes eastern areas

[JJBASHB]

[ineedsnow]

[JJBASHB]

It’s weird, the actual track sort of dances around.  West, northwest, southwest, then northeast of the previous run but looks overall less squashed on the northwest side.  Allowing better dynamics to back in, intact?

Track is definitely better early on but isn’t a huge difference by the time it’s impacting us.  But maybe, if it isn't getting elongated in an unfavorable direction could actually have the fabled west death band as it expands.  Another way it could work out if the track stays a little too far away. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s a blizzard here 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That was a very good run overall. Solid 30-40mi bump N/NW in the closed Low at 500. 

Looks like the GEFS should bump NW early on.

The Machine was only a tick  or so better, funny how far SE that went and were watching it correct back NW after it ran over HFD a couple days ago

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a blizzard here 

Do it!

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a blizzard here 

not happening james

[CoastalWx]

Good to see euro ai on board at least. 
 

This whole setup still doesn’t sit comfortably with me though. Like we’re waiting for the rug to really get pulled. Hopefully 6z euro and euro ai on board. We don’t need massive bumps. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good to see euro ai on board at least. 
 

This whole setup still doesn’t sit comfortably with me though. Like we’re waiting for the rug to really get pulled. Hopefully 6z euro and euro ai on board. We don’t need massive bumps. 

The Euro has been adamantly stubborn, so well see if it ever catches on, or we reach a middle ground somewhere SE of the BM that teases everyone. 

[Kitz Craver]

I believe that GFS when the EURO comes out soon. Beware of the off hour waffles. Mmmmm. Breakfast…

[The 4 Seasons]

Looks like the whole cluster on the 6Z GEFS shifted NW

[moneypitmike]

Just need 150 more miles. 

[JJBASHB]

If this comes far enough west and I get 6 inches of subbyhole sand this winter will be an instant F.  

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, JJBASHB said:

If this comes far enough west and I get 6 inches of subbyhole sand this winter will be an instant F.  

i'll never understand this mentality, so you'd rather have 0" than 6 because your neighbor gets more/buried?

If that verified verbatim i'd be more than happy with 7 inches if Coastal gets 18" and a full blizz. I'd be jealous but certainly wouldn't trade it for P. Sunny. 

Another warning event is a win

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i'll never understand this mentality, so you'd rather have 0" than 6 because your neighbor gets more/buried?

If that verified verbatim i'd be more than happy with 7 inches if Coastal gets 18" and a full blizz. I'd be jealous but certainly wouldn't trade it for P. Sunny. 

Another warning event is a win

Gfs actually threw a def band well inland too. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully I come out of the gym to weenies taking off clothes to 6z euro and euro ai.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs actually threw a def band well inland too. 

Yeah i saw that on MLs well into the Berks. QPF doesn't reflect that well with a hole over the CTRV, if only that can hold or improve would be nice

[JJBASHB]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i'll never understand this mentality, so you'd rather have 0" than 6 because your neighbor gets more/buried?

If that verified verbatim i'd be more than happy with 7 inches if Coastal gets 18" and a full blizz. I'd be jealous but certainly wouldn't trade it for P. Sunny. 

Another warning event is a win

Oh, it was sarcasm.  Couched in some anticipation that it might be banded in nature if this is LBSW and expanding as it gets here.  Honestly I’d be happy but also disappointed for my own experience and ready for warmth, easy commutes, and running around with the kids. I think that’s part of the reality and fun on the hobbyist side.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a blizzard here 

Looks like Jan 22...lovely.

[mahk_webstah]

Euro ai similar to 0z to my untrained eye, perhaps slightly se?  But solid precip shield in sne 

[dendrite]

Op way south