Nibor Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This shift on the AI euro gives the other western guidance some legitimacy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, Noteaster101 said: I’m driving to Atlantic City 110% if this pans out! It’s won’t pan out there. We’re still 4-5 days out. You don’t want to be in the bullseye at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago yup, that ridge is able to bubble up between the upper level features, creating almost a mini Omega-block look Causes our ULL to slow down and tilt rather than continue to swing positively towards the coast nice move from the AIFS, now lets see if the OP sees the same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1/19 EURO AI AIFS Total QPf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: yup, that ridge is able to bubble up between the upper level features, creating almost a mini Omega-block look Causes our ULL to slow down and tilt rather than continue to swing positively towards the coast nice move from the AIFS, now lets see if the OP sees the same thing Op is ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Op is ass Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Wxbear25 said: Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol It's out to sea. Maybe a hair east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/19 EURO AI AIFS Total QPf Aifs eps is also further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Op is ass Outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, MJO812 said: Outlier right now Drunk Unkle agrees with it. The AI euro shifting west was huge though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, MJO812 said: Outlier right now Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol This run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome. Gefs was with the euro but it shifted way further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome. Icon is by far the worst global and the NAM at 84 or extrapolating past 84 should be weighted 0%. I'd say that regardless it's a terrible model in the short term let alone 60 or 84hrs out. The Euro/UK being OTS is the real concern, not the NAM/Icon powerhouse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Overall the EC is worse than 18Z but better than 12Z The CMC para is a tick SE of the OP, but improved a lot from its 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro still gives us a few inches even with the low way overshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Eps is also improved. Nice trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is also improved. Nice trends. you have some weenievista maps, wxbell isn't out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Oh yeah the mean went up on the EPS and AIEPS with several big hits in there about 8-10 on the EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Model Mayhem continues. So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Model Mayhem continues. So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps. The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close It's an outlier within that group, but it belongs in that group relative to the other 3, as it's much closer to the CMC/AIFS on track and having at least significant snowfall, especially at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Model Mayhem continues. So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps. What exactly does Weathernext2 show and where do you see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 27 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: What exactly does Weathernext2 show and where do you see it? Slightly west of 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Slightly west of 18z thanks. saw it did very good on the Jan 25-26th storm, just curious about it. too many models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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