2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A +PDO coupled with a super Nino is just 97/98. A -PDO could cause deconstructive interference which makes the pattern much more variable. 

It interferes by *weakening* the SE trough and making it *even warmer* meanwhile a 97-98 type pattern increases the chances of a big snowstorm via the active southern stream. That winter came very close to multiple KUs that barely missed the cold air phase. 82-83/15-16 produced one and had +PDOs as well. 

In my several years of tracking weather it has always been preferable to have a +PDO and is backed up by evidence. “-PDO means less el niño so it’s snowier” is such a wrong way to view it. You *always* want a +PDO in the East, and hopefully it flips and we get that! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think somewhere close to neutral PDO is the best scenario for a robust el nino. Strong/super el ninos have busted when the PDO was highly negative or highly positive. A near neutral PDO is the sweet spot (see 1965-66 and 2009-10).

[LakePaste25]

PDO correlation

+PDO = more troughing in the east. 97-98 would’ve been an extreme torch without the +PDO. 

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Pretty obvious it wasn't going to be a Modoki from early on given the unusual off-equator WWBs and strength of the subsequent WWBs near the equator. It was catchable by late March-early April and dead easy call to make by late May.

I think he was taking people saying how it could become one too seriously, but he also must follow a bunch of weenies because I haven't really seen anyone with a degree say it only some hopeful hobbiests pondering about it.