2026-2027 Super El Nino

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah it will be warm. The question is more the magnitude of the warmth as that will make a big difference in terms of how much of the precip is wet vs white. There is a big difference between say +2 AN and +5-6 AN. 

Worth nothing that if you get far enough north and or high enough in elevation in new england the correlation between cold and snow becomes almost nil. The climo there is cold enough that a 5-6 F + winter does not meaningfully affect snow odds. If you plot snowfall versus temp for a place like Stowe VT it will essentially be a random scatterplot with no correlation. 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been hitting hard in October for a while. Considering how far away we are from October, it might be the biggest yet if correct. But is that signaling the big finale?  Idk. Just wondering based on an apparent November forecast peak.

That's quite impressive looking too! I'm not quite sure what to expect with this thing other than a powerhouse STJ. It's unprecedented in many ways. I'm having fun just monitoring it. Tons of interesting aspects. Really fascinating event.

[annunciated]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

That's quite impressive looking too! I'm not quite sure what to expect with this thing other than a powerhouse STJ. It's unprecedented in many ways. I'm having fun just monitoring it. Tons of interesting aspects. Really fascinating event.

Good thing NA is on the verge of its cooling-off phase here in the troposphere; it'll be good to see the STJ start to go in a month or two as that temp. gradient becomes apparent

[annunciated]

16 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Worth nothing that if you get far enough north and or high enough in elevation in new england the correlation between cold and snow becomes almost nil. The climo there is cold enough that a 5-6 F + winter does not meaningfully affect snow odds. If you plot snowfall versus temp for a place like Stowe VT it will essentially be a random scatterplot with no correlation. 

At that point further north, you're essentially trading cold(er) air for potential improvements in moisture, if perhaps a greater risk for ice. In my opinion, that could cancel out the warmth's detrimental effects if not add to the snow total average if you can get a good background pattern instead of the polar jet constantly lagging back into Canada.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That's quite impressive looking too! I'm not quite sure what to expect with this thing other than a powerhouse STJ. It's unprecedented in many ways. I'm having fun just monitoring it. Tons of interesting aspects. Really fascinating event.

Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. 

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

[ensonerd1233e343]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

Um yea no seasonal models are bad  the last 2 winters should be exhibit a,  im as much of a weenie as the next guy but im not holding my breath next winter for sustained cold and snow ( here in the mid atl) although there is certainly an increased chance of a big storm w a mega juiced stj, but cold? highly unlikely maybe feb will be cold and thats it 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I strongly disagree. 1951-80 has not been relevant base climo for anomalies for a very long time. Normals are supposed to reflect the most up to date available climo. We’re obviously in a notably warmer climate than that of 1951-80. That earlier colder climate is no longer relevant for determining normals.

NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. Berkeley Earth uses the 1850-1900 period along with Copernicus and the Met Office.

1951-1980 was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off.

So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. 
 

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/

The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html

Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed  over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations.

The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available.