2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

 To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:

[bluewave]

The -PDO 500 mb index has been more impressive than the SST index. Notice the near record high pressure north of Hawaii. This has displaced the Aleutian low into Alaska with the local cool there and warmth everywhere else in North America.

This is a first during the month of July for such a strong El Niño. The Aleutian low is usually closer to East Asia with a developing super El Niño.

The seasonal models as recently as around May 1st were going with this super El Niño composite especially on the Pacific side.

So another case of seasonal models just defaulting to past El Niño climatology rather than seeing the actual pattern. The run around July 1st once the period was starting to do a little better. But still missed the magnitude of the pattern.

 

July composite strongest El Ninos

 

 

Verification July 1-20th with the 500 mb -PDO index one of the strongest on record for the period

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it. 

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it. 

I think @raindancewxhad the right idea....it will fade to just either side of neutral for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

Yes, very plausible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/24/2026 at 1:30 PM, snowman19 said:

Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO



Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times. 

 

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

[LakePaste25]

CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. 

I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 
2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1
2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1
1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4
2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 
Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 
Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI
 

[raindancewx]

Locally, almost everything I'm seeing implies a colder winter than 2023-24.

For Nov-Jan, a colder Atlantic (AMO) is correlated almost everywhere with colder US temps. That reverses later, but its important early on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI
 

Absolutely agreed with this....the warmth in 1.2 renders it a moot point in terms of the seasonal mean, however the warmth in the rest leave the door open for some volatility IMHO. Regardless, it will be warm overall.

[raindancewx]

I found some of my old research and updated it for the last few years (2021-2025). It looks like the formulas still work for predicting precipitation locally in El Nino / La Nina seasonally, and even month by month.

El Nino DJF precip locally can be predicted at very high confidence (90%, within 0.8" of output, 75% odds of within 0.59") using the Sept high, Nov precipitation, and wet days in July-Sept (+1/2 of wet Jun days).

Formula is: =(B13*-0.04239*B13)-(0.30999*B13*C13)-(0.018527*B13*D13)+(0.01853*C13*C13)-(0.2244*C13*D13)+(0.00347*D13*D13)+(7.277*B13)+(28.465*C13)+(1.6066*D13)-(311.76)

Where B is Sept high, C is Nov precip, D is Wet days.

DJF highs in El Ninos locally tend to match DJF ONI, July-Jun annual sunspots, and DJF ONIp, within ~2.3F or so 90% of years. Here is 2023-24 as an example:

I never was able to find an El Nino at that solar level / trajectory - 129.6 in the rising part of the cycle. The peak was 149.2 for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun). This is the only El Nino since 1931 one year from rising to the peak. 1957, 1968, 1979 are at the peak, not before.

Dec El	ONI	Sun	ONIp	DJF Tmax
1939	1.0	125.9	-1.0	49.8
1957	1.8	281.6	-0.2	50.5
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9
1994	1.0	36.9	0.1	54.4
Blend	1.6	129.8	-0.4	49.6
2023	1.9	129.6	-0.5	51.4

For 2026-27, there is probably no real way to use my method given what is forecast (ONI at +3.0C to +3.5C in DJF). But you can use solar (60-80?) and ONIp as anchors.

Dec El	ONI	Sun	ONIp	DJF Tmax
1965	1.4	37.1	-0.6	44.4
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9
1997	2.2	54.9	-0.5	47.1
2015	2.5	55.8	0.6	51.4
2023	1.9	129.6	-0.5	51.4
Blend	2.0	80.3	-0.3	47.9
2026	3.1	75	-0.4	47

Solar was 106.2 sunspots/month from July 2025-June 2026, and declining. Similar initial positions/trends (roughly: 86-126) were 1939-40 (126), 1950-51 (103), 1960-61 (117), 1971-72 (101), 1982-83 (129), 1992-93 (103), 2002-03 (131), 2014-15 (91). The following years imply ~72 sunspots/month for July 2026-Jun 2027.

If you use just the solar cycle positioning/tendency, you can see 1950-51 and 2002-03 as a blend is very similar to last year for temps -

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting  .30 within the outcome?

@bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality?

TIA.