2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino who?

ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)

Now you've done it. Just wait for all those 246hr Gfs snowstorm maps this winter from us weenies.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Now you've done it. Just wait for all those 246hr Gfs snowstorm maps this winter from us weenies.

Will it show the lowest DM ever recorded in US?

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie.

That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Thats crazy how it skipped over Pittsburgh. Detroit hit 102 and NYC 104.

The month had 14 days 90+ at DTW & 11 days at NYC 

[cmillzz]

Strongest Niño on record with no precedence along with other competing factors and even some lingering niña-like effects. Wouldn’t be confident at all in making calls for the upcoming winter, especially at this juncture. Only confidence is that it’ll likely be very warm at times, and very statistically unlikely to be as cold as last winter in the East (even without taking ENSO into account).

[cmillzz]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie.

That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Give me a spring like 1977 next year please. Still remains the warmest on record in my city, even beating out 2012 (and by far the warmest May). Kinda doesn’t really make sense either as it was a complete outlier in an era that was dominated by cold seasons in general (not just winter). Wonder what led to that happening.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however. 

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Give me a spring like 1977 next year please. Still remains the warmest on record in my city, even beating out 2012 (and by far the warmest May). Kinda doesn’t really make sense either as it was a complete outlier in an era that was dominated by cold seasons in general (not just winter). Wonder what led to that happening.

As I said, idk what happened at PIT but July 1977 had some brutal heat. However summers with brutal heat, regardless of the winter, are not uncommon in this area with our extreme seasons. But I do think spring 1977 gets lost in the shuffle. That was a very impressive and fast change from one of the coldest winters on record to one of the warmest springs.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.

We have been experiencing record heat here in the East at times going back to March related to the record breaking subtropical tropical ridges from 30N to 45N.

Most times very strong to super El Niños feature more troughs and low pressure at these latitudes during this time of year. The ridges are usually further north on the continent in Canada. This has lead to the mid-latitude Atlantic SSTs  joining the very warm mid-latitude Pacific SSTs.

This is probably related to the ongoing expansion of the subtropical ridges over the years. Plus we have very extensive drought in the CONUS  at this time. Also when forcing shifts back to the IO and MC we tend to see the peak warmth and ridging in the East. 

The reason the -PDO and +AMO pattern has been so persistent in recent years is due to these strong ridges leading to lighter winds and more sunshine warming the ocean surface below.