2026-2027 Super El Nino

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly what I think of you. I typically don't name call though, something you do all the time to people in here.

Hes a troll

[raindancewx]

The truth is you guys in the Northeast probably won't get too much snow.

In your favor -

1) Very wet conditions are likely.

2) Some blocking is likely later on.

Not in your favor -

1) -PDO is a negative PNA tendency. I expect PNA finishes positive in Nov-Mar, but not by much in a few of the periods. There won't be a whole of lot of shots at big nor'easters when it is cold.

2) -AMO trend pushes storms to the South. I had storms miss me (in the desert) in 2010-11, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2018-19 to the South - same applies in the Northeast.

3) Three cold winters in a row is rare for the Northeast, and should not be the expected outcome.

4) Sort of looks to me like a -WPO in the Fall which will build up cold in Canada, and then it gets warmed up and dispersed in winter when it flips later on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The best way to validate what will happen with this event is to find opposite conditions :

Solar Max or Min (rather than mid-cycle)

Strong east based La Nina in Summer that is colder (relatively) than Nino 4

Opposite IOD/AMO for Summer.

Roll that year or blend of years forward and flip it. That should match the analogs. Haven't done that yet.

I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.

Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise.  But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. 

But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise.  But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. 

But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.

It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise.  But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. 

But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.

This is whats interesting to me. I fully expect a milder than avg winter here, as ive said multiple times. However, the fact that a few models are showing cold, and even the milder models aren't anywhere near a furnace, is a red flag for those (we know who they are) who assume super nino means super furnace. Remember, these same models are all showing the strong/super nino, and nino climo is already in these models, are not showing blazing warmthm

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.

Exactly. Sometimes the difference between anamolies and absolutes get lost in the translation. A low snow winter in detroit is still snowier than a snowy winter in Albuquerque. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you actually look at the JMA model, it actually has the warmest pocket of water pretty near where the east-based composite has it, but it's extending the El Niño very far to the west so that it has more of a Modoki look. It's actually similar to 2023-2024 did, but the forcing is a bit east, so it's a Modoki El Niño forcing rather than MC. That to me is a bit harder to dismiss as "stock ENSO bias". Go and check out the June 2023 forecast and it looked different. the fact that the CANSIPS is doing the same thing adds to the intrigue. 

Now, do I think that the seasonal mean will look like that with an El Niño this strong? No, I don't...too much wamth too far east. But do I think that we can get a month to look like that in the back half of the season? You bet I do-

[40/70 Benchmark]

Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here. 

I consider myself to have a lot of weather knowledge...but i dont forecast. Definitely respect those who do so, particularly without much bias. 

I have a preference, not a bias. I worry that preference would create a bias if I tried to forecast, so I dont. Say its mid winter and every model shows warmth the next two weeks. I know its going to be warm, so instead of trying to find something to say all models will be wrong, or try to find a reason why it will be warm when i thought it would be cold.....no...im going to deal with it, see if we will squeeze snow out of it, and look beyind the warm spell. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I consider myself to have a lot of weather knowledge...but i dont forecast. Definitely respect those who do so, particularly without much bias. 

I have a preference, not a bias. I worry that preference would create a bias if I tried to forecast, so I dont. Say its mid winter and every model shows warmth the next two weeks. I know its going to be warm, so instead of trying to find something to say all models will be wrong, or try to find a reason why it will be warm when i thought it would be cold.....no...im going to deal with it, see if we will squeeze snow out of it, and look beyind the warm spell. 

I have a bias...it's human nature. If anything, I have overcompensated the past couple of years and it's probably at least in part why I didn't go as cold as my narrative implied last year when I clearly should have.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope!  Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

Definitely done better with that past few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

 I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.

PDO is glaring there, look at this a -0.6 correlation in Louisiana! That's out of 1.0. I would agree, near normal, El Nino east or west based is usually colder than average there

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??

 Thanks, Ray.
 Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.