Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundling cold pool in November. Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland It's camped there from July-through September, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015. WWB looks to be hitting kind of a barrier in region 3 for now, so this looks to end to remain basin-wide...I am betting 1.2 has peaked for awhile....not saying much given how warm it is, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965. 65-66 had a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Good stuff as always, snowman19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki. Looks beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 65-66 had a -PNA? Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic. 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 44 minutes ago Author Share Posted 44 minutes ago 15 minutes ago, roardog said: I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 16 minutes ago, roardog said: I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 32 minutes ago Author Share Posted 32 minutes ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay. Ever had a La Nina this east based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 32 minutes ago Share Posted 32 minutes ago Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 32 minutes ago Share Posted 32 minutes ago Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Ever had a La Nina this east based? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 29 minutes ago Author Share Posted 29 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No idea. No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may edged eastward a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 25 minutes ago Author Share Posted 25 minutes ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may edged eastward a bit. East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 23 minutes ago Author Share Posted 23 minutes ago 02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def, the most extreme members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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