2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundling cold pool in November.

Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO

I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO

I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland

It's camped there from July-through September, too.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+1.4 on Tropical Tidbits

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015. WWB looks to be hitting kind of a barrier in region 3 for now, so this looks to end to remain basin-wide...I am betting 1.2 has peaked for awhile....not saying much given how warm it is, I know.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki  like, per 1957 and 1965.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki  like, per 1957 and 1965.

65-66 had a -PNA?

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good stuff as always, snowman19

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter?

interesting...

Looks Modoki.

Looks beautiful!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

65-66 had a -PNA?

Yes.

I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though.

I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent

So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. 

Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic. 

 

 

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. 

Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification.