Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024. I'm really starting to miss the Daily Climate Composite maps, as current SSTA configurations could start giving us clues about the cold season NAO and WPO, and SLP maps over the Arctic, an indicator of cold season AO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm really starting to miss the Daily Climate Composite maps, as current SSTA configurations could start giving us clues about the cold season NAO and WPO, and SLP maps over the Arctic, an indicator of cold season AO. Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally) That monster warm blob has caused nothing but havoc with winter in the past several years in the northeast and mid Atlantic. If it takes a super ElNino to slay it while wrecking this upcoming winter in the process, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs. 1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs. Since the Solar max in 2024, 3 straight Summers, or in this case early Summer, has had big time cold over the Arctic 60-90N relative to the global warming. I'm thinking that we are pretty close to 2024, 2025 so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO. Should be interesting to see how closely we follow 2015 when the QBO switches. I agree that it's the best ENSO/QBO combo. 23-24 and 72-73 look like good ENSO/PDO matches, although this one will probably be a stronger Nino. And of course 1997 is taking the lead in the subsurface. Next year we will start descending into more of a Solar Min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since the Solar max in 2024, 3 straight Summers, or in this case early Summer, has had big time cold over the Arctic 60-90N relative to the global warming. I'm thinking that we are pretty close to 2024, 2025 so far. I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO. Might be another -AO vs +NAO type of scenario, but it's still early. Stronger El Nino going forward might disrupt the consistency over the Arctic, which is imo Solar related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? intersting... Looks Modoki. I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 We had more MC influence in 2023 for an east-based pattern despite Modoki like SSTs, but I wonder if we don't end with more Modoki pattern this season despite SSTs looking east-based due to the warm pool being tugged eastward a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. Yea, I know it's biased towards stock ENSO, but it makes sense to an extent if the warm pool does slosh east somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki. I think 95% of us MidAtl/Northeastern would take that all day--sold! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. June 2023 forecast looked pretty different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Might be another -AO vs +NAO type of scenario, but it's still early. Stronger El Nino going forward might disrupt the consistency over the Arctic, which is imo Solar related. In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships. I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting! Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season. Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO This what I meant this morning when I said we'd be walking a tight-rope...this season pull it off, though with a slight nude east of the warm pool. We are do for a good Nino...it's been over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundland cold pool in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundling cold pool in November. Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland It's camped there from July-through September, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015. WWB looks to be hitting kind of a barrier in region 3 for now, so this looks to end to remain basin-wide...I am betting 1.2 has peaked for awhile....not saying much given how warm it is, I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965. 65-66 had a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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