2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

Correct, but it had a -WPO, which is why it was actually a decent season.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, George001 said:

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years?

It could be related to the EPAC near Nino 1+2 not fully cooling off following the +2.1 ONI event back in 2023-2024. All the ONI events over plus +2.0 since the early 1970s had a stronger return to La Niña conditions in the following years even to Nino 1+2.

We can also notice the La Ninas following super El Niños weakening over time. The recent La Niña was one of the weakest on record following such a strong El Niño.

Plus back in November of 2024 we had a Nino +1.2 warming leading to the Nino-like December 2024 pattern and the 2nd warmest CONUS December with the record +PNA for a La Niña December. Many people commented how it looked like a El Niño December. The Aleutian Low was actually pretty strong for a change.

Very unusual Nino +1.2 warming in November 2024 and Nino-like December 2024

 

So it appears that the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events are almost running together like the 2023-2024 event never fully ended. Something like this hasn’t happened before in or modern climate era. So it will be interesting to see what happens following this event in 2027-2028. 

La Ninas getting weaker following +2.0 ONI El Niño events

1972-1973 ONI +2.1…..1973-1974 ONI -2.0

1982-1983 ONI..+2.2…1984-1985 ONI..-1.1

1997-1998 ONI….-2.4…1999-2000 ONI -1.7

2015-2016..ONI….+2.8…2017-2018 ONI…-0.9

2023-2024 ONI +2.1….2025-2026 ONI…-0.5

Nino +1.2 never fully cooled off between El Niño events which is a first in the modern climate era.

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

 I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026:

1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May

12MAY1982        -0.6        0.5        0.4        0.7
 19MAY1982        -0.4        1.0        1.1        1.1

 

2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

 

 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026:

1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May

12MAY1982        -0.6        0.5        0.4        0.7
 19MAY1982        -0.4        1.0        1.1        1.1

 

2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

 

 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

Thanks. Actually at the current point in time, I have 2026 to be most similar to 2015: check this out

13MAY2015         1.3        0.7        0.6        0.7
 20MAY2015         1.3        0.5        0.5        0.8

 

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

That -PDO is looking to make a comeback 

Pretty impressive decadal -PDO state we are in. I wonder if the mid-latitude low pressures will ever come back like they were for the 82-83 and 97-98 El Nino's. 

[roardog]

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

Click on 2nd chart on right at this link:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that. 

That KW is a monster

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That KW is a monster

Really a strong graduation. It's still intensifying in the far east

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New CPC Summer seasonal is much warmer than classic developing Strong Nino climo

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New CPC Winter forecast fwiw. In the last 15 years they actually don't verify as good as you think they would at +2 month lead. Not sure how they do at +7 month lead:

[snowman19]

@stormchaserchuck1

It not only looks like 1997, the far eastern subsurface is actually warmer than 1997 was now:

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^If May finishes where we are now in the SOI, there will have been only one 2-month period with a lower SOI since 2016, Aug-Sept 2023, and was barely lower than -10/month. It's been quite a +SOI streak since 2016. Big difference in the SOI this Spring after an anomalous +7 March. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/20/2026 at 9:21 AM, buckeye said:

A super nino winter can also hold surprises and extreme events even though the overall backdrop is above normal temps.   I think Cincy had it's greatest 24 hr snowfall in Feb of '98.    Weird cut off low dropping snow to the south and rain to the north.    It probably won't be completely boring and I'm sure there will be some fantasy storms to track.

Oh for sure.  Its all relative. We still have winter, just not as much as we normally do. Ive been saying since March, and will only get more confident if el nino stays on the strong path, that next winter will see less cold and snowcover but a bigger storm. 

Multiple instances of good storms in strong Nino winters. Usually get a few of the very scenic paste jobs too. 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Correct, but it had a -WPO, which is why it was actually a decent season.

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. 

1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.

[LakePaste25]

Yup. To eradicate that W pac warm pool (which is what we want), we will need to maximize on this potential. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

No surprise here

NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[BlizzardWx]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Click on 2nd chart on right at this link:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.

The last few years we've done that mid summer PDO nosedive. I think that will be an early clue for this winter for what path we are on. If we can avoid driving off the PDO cliff maybe things really are changing.

 

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yup. To eradicate that W pac warm pool (which is what we want), we will need to maximize on this potential. 

 

This is definitely what we want to see. After a decade of anomalous warmth its going to take some work to clear that heat out, but we should make a good dent if the WWBs and KWs continue. I hope we can get plenty of recurving typhoons this summer and fall to eat up the warmth further north too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that. 

Super El Niño and decent -PDO would probably be lights out for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. 

Yea, it's the only decent one out here.

[GaWx]

The most solid Nino support from AAM yet if this CFS prog is to be believed:

 

[snowman19]

The South American weather service just declared that an “El Nino Costero” (coastal) has developed…..