2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO.

[snowman19]

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

 

 

 

 

 

 They’re not mentioning that the Euro has had a warm bias though it’s lowest for an actual Nino (few ticks on average with a couple almost perfect). May run has almost never verified too cool. They’re probably not aware of this bias. You won’t be less you study the verifications going back aways like I did. Of course even a warm bias doesn’t mean it will definitely verify colder.

[snowman19]

 They’re not mentioning that the Euro has had a warm bias though it’s lowest for an actual Nino (few ticks on average with a couple almost perfect). May run has almost never verified too cool. They’re probably not aware of this bias. You won’t be less you study the verifications going back aways like I did. Of course even a warm bias doesn’t mean it will definitely verify colder.

^ “Worth noting that while the ECMWF has had a high bias in some ENSO forecasts in past springs, so far the forecasts from earlier this spring are verifying quite nicely with the rapid evolution towards +ENSO. In past bust cases (like 2017 and 2022), the warm bias was already evident by May. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Doesn't mean the model is perfect, but there's also no evidence of a major bust this time around.”

[roardog]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. I’m not sure it’s showing a +PDO like he says. 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO.

Im sorry but that is just not true, look at 97/98 as the example right on the money. There is a key thing within the variables it is picking up on that is causing it to be lower versus ONI/RONI. This seemed to have switched up around 09/10 season onward. In fact you could even argue it was pretty darn close for the 15/16 super Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

MEI vs Nino 3.4

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

You know it’s going to be a big event when they have to adjust the scale higher.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im sorry but that is just not true, look at 97/98 as the example right on the money. There is a key thing within the variables it is picking up on that is causing it to be lower versus ONI/RONI. This seemed to have switched up around 09/10 season onward. In fact you could even argue it was pretty darn close for the 15/16 super Nino.

Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.

This is not my chart it is through PSL and their data. We can go back and forth till our faces turn blue but with it being a multivariate index it just shows the issues of not having everything align within an ENSO state. Take for instance the 22/23 ENSO state, RONI and ONI were -1.3 and -1 at peak respectively but showed the MEI for that ENSO event categorized strong to borderline super Nina. So was it right in depicting that the atmospheric/oceanic pattern was more La Nina than what was being represented by ONI/RONI? I think it is important to look at all aspects and not lock ourselves into one index or train of thought. As we see Bluewave throwing his theories on how things are progressing globally they may be wrong or right but it is still taken into consideration. 

There will be flaws with every index we have as nothing is concrete but it is more so interesting to see where the index is seeing these issues arise in the different states. We quickly jump on the RONI bandwagon to depict what will happen without knowing the flaws in this index but nitpick others... that just doesn't seem right.

[George001]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s going to be a big event when they have to adjust the scale higher.

 

 

Yep it’s coming. This is clearly an early developing El Niño with extreme subsurface heat, I am fully on board with the super Nino idea. Normally I lean against an extreme event until proven otherwise, but like you said them having to adjust the scales…. Have to wonder if the more aggressive normally warm biased guidance has the right idea this time (eg European). 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low May SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009.

 Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low:

18Z GFS: 1002 low very near Tahiti

 

 But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12).

 I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs.

 This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days (common with incoming Nino), there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012 at Darwin.