2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

On 5/2/2026 at 1:40 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:

 

 

My leaning of the weekly relative 3.4 going up from +0.2 in last week’s release to +0.4 in today’s turned out to be what happened for its 4th rise in a row. Nino 1+2 cooled again (by 0.2) to +0.7. Nino 3, like Nino 3.4, rose for the 4th week in a row to +0.5. Nino 4 was unchanged at +0.5. So far, it’s not behaving as if it is headed to strongly E based this autumn. Cansips has been suggesting central to W based with E (1+2 to 3) not as warm as C to W (3.4 to 4), but we’ll see as there’s a long way to go:

Date (avg for wk centered on)………………....1+2………..3………..3.4………..4

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5

 ——————-

 The latest SSTa charts suggest a pause, which is long overdue, MAY finally be occurring temporarily:

 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events. 
 

 

I would like to see how this actually translates to surface readout coming up.

[GaWx]

 The April and FMA relative and non-relative have just been released and they suggest the most recently calculated differential is ~0.6C:

1. FMA:

ONI +0.11

RONI -0.48

0.59 diff vs 0.56 diff. JFM

 

2. April alone:

ONI +0.36

RONI -0.24

0.60 diff. vs 0.55 in March

[PhiEaglesfan712]

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

The slight lowering from March does though jibe with the slight downward trend of these WCS dailies:

[snowman19]

Yet another major WWB is gearing up, which will generate yet another DWKW. And there are hints of EPAC TC activity starting up, which generate more WWBs in their wake. If there was any doubt left that we are destined for a super El Niño (IMO a top 3 super Nino), this should put it to rest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2  caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December.  If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

ONI coming in at 0.1 and MEI showing -0.6

[Stormchaserchuck1]

My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong. 

[snowman19]

My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year. 

[snowman19]

But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year. 

This El Niño just started

Even JB admits it’s coming

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño just started

And since November every composite for "before an El Nino the next year" has worked out perfectly - probably the best 6 month running composite match on record. It may take a +4.0c ONI El Nino to dominate a N. Pacific low like 82-83 or 97-98 though

[bluewave]

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 
 

 

 

+PDO pattern

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

Nino 1+2 was almost 0.0 in 09-10. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 
 

 

 

+PDO pattern

 

 

For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.
09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish 

The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO
 

 

Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave @donsutherland1 @Isotherm

 

 

 

 

“The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”

 

 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2  caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December.  If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

 Also, note that climo used for TT’s CFS is 1984-2009, which is cooler than 1991-2020.

 If these CFS happen to verify, they’d make much more sense vs history of strong El Niño with their coolest anomalies in the S US vs the coolest anomalies on Cansips being in the N US, which is extremely out of sync with strong Nino climo.

 Also, the CFS has had and continues to have a stronger and more E based Nino vs a not quite as strong C to W based Nino on the Cansips runs:

CFS: pretty E based and very strong

 

Cansips: much more C to W based and not quite as strong

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 
 

 

 

+PDO pattern

 

 

Also, note that like the CFS that the Euro has the Nino being pretty east based. Taking a few tenths off of this Euro prog due to its warm bias and then cooling it ~0.5 to roughly estimate RONI likely yields something pretty similar to the +2.5 C peak RONI (+2.7C peak month) of the most recent CFS runs, which would be near a record warm RONI (back to 1950) and would be a 1982-3 redux.

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Also, note that like the CFS that the Euro has the Nino being pretty east based. Taking a few tenths off of this Euro prog due to its warm bias and then cooling it ~0.5 to roughly estimate RONI likely yields something pretty similar to the +2.5 C peak RONI (+2.7C peak month) of the most recent CFS runs, which would be near a record warm RONI (back to 1950) and would be a 1982-3 redux.

We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.

1982-3 was east based and was an amazing winter snow wise in much of the SE US (E AL to NE NC)!

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.

Yea, I do not agree with @mitchnick...I think the modoki index is going to be pretty useless this season...TBH, I wonder if that is losing utility like the ONI as a byproduct of CC. I bet the key is going to be watching the relationship between the RONI and ONI...the larger separation (assuming RONI is lower), the more ill-defined the Aleutian low/se trough will be, and the shittier the eastern winter. We may need to come up with some sort of index for that.

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1982-3 was east based and was an amazing winter snow wise in much of the SE US (E AL to NE NC)!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

No chance this ends up like 2009-2010. 1982 is the ceiling, 2015 the floor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong. 

Precisely what we don't want.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No chance this ends up like 2009-2010. 1982 is the ceiling, 2015 the floor.

If that's the case, then I guess you're pretty much certain on a flip to +PDO. Probably going to mean an AN temperature winter, but I'd take my chances of this (both 1982 and 2015 had a major snowstorm), rather than a deep -PDO robust el nino like 1972 or 2023.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If that's the case, then I guess you're pretty much certain on a flip to +PDO. Probably going to mean an AN temperature winter, but I'd take my chances of this (both 1982 and 2015 had a major snowstorm), rather than a deep -PDO robust el nino like 1972 or 2023.

I don't think it will be another deep -PDO, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will get a se tought.