2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Honga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption

I really don't know or care what he intended. It was a wag and is why I said "may have been" the reason. Lol

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I high doubt we see the full reversal, but would be interesting. 

Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total wind reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're gonna have a non winter like the west experienced last year. Probably a real wake up call for many when we're seeing multiple days of 70s in Jan/Feb and zero snow.  

DE-FENCE----CLAP-CLAP-CLAP.....DE-FENCE-CLAP-CLAP-CLAP

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good call. The 12z EURO caved on a total reversal and split. This is starting to look like a Canadian warming and definitely not a SSWE

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

Warm November ahead 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets. 

[mitchnick]

Today’s Euro weeklies has the trough in the south getting started by week 3 and deepens it the next 2 weeks. This is the earliest the weeklies have showed the southern trough. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611230000

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.

Odd.  Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000

[EasternLI]

While I do agree that a SSW is an outside outlier chance, as I have been saying. The chance is not zero as of yet. Clearly having one NOT occur is the favored outcome. As it would be an unprecedented event for the time of year. As such that will never be favored. At the same time, seeing the powerhouse Ural block and an unprecedented El Nino, maybe it's best to keep an open mind about something unprecedented. We did have the end of November action in the strat last year, which was largely dismissed by most (myself included) at the time as not being much of a factor. However it proved itself to be an important player further down the line. So it's probably wise to just keep tabs on it for now until the path forward becomes much clearer. 

 

As of the 00z 10-25 runs, the EPS achieves wind reversals on quite a few members 42%. That's not insignificant. The GEFS, after having zero interest at all originally, has started to have some lately. Now some of you might be thinking, but it looks like a torch during that period. You would be right, that is also a part of what usually happens during these types of things too. Even if it doesn't go off, there's probably ramifications either way. Worth watching imo.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season". 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season". 

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

I went through the whole dataset back to 1948 a while ago. Big anomalies started to appear at 10mb after the turn to October. 

Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

I doubt we'll have a record event. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

 
 Here are the lowest for the four years hitting record lows (since these graphs started in 1978-9) during the first 10 days of Nov:

2016-7: ~11 low (+QBO, the only one of these four years with QBO similar to 2026)

 

2009-10 (El Nino): ~11 low during Nov 1-10 only (-QBO)

 

 

2005-6: ~12 low (dropping +QBO)

 

2004-5 (El Nino): ~13 low (-QBO)

 The 0Z 10/25/26 progs are suggesting these +11 to +13 dips will likely be exceeded and quite possibly by a wide margin of 5 to 10.

*Edited to correct typos

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely.