2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I still think it’s too cold. If I were to reconstruct the expected pattern you just described on a T2M map for the Feb mean, I’d expect more light red in Western Canada and lighter blue in the SE. That CFS map implies deeper and more persistent Arctic cold, which I don’t agree with. 

As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes. 

They're all pretty BN in the SE, so they'll all be wrong ir right to one degree or another. 

[forkyfork]

clinging to the february cfs like a displaced ukrainian child clinging to a doll

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes. 

-2016: much less E based Nino

In the E US, the mid-Oct ‘15 forecast mean CFSv2 for Feb ‘16 actually verified slightly too warm overall in the E US!

Verification of Feb ‘16 (vs 1981-2010):

 

-2024, much weaker and less E based Nino:

The mid-Oct ‘23 mean CFSv2 forecast for Feb ‘24 verified too cold NE but wasn’t too far off in the SE and was very close deep SE:

 

Verification of Feb ‘24 (vs 1991-2020):

 

 How will it do for Feb ‘27? We’ll see! Yes, although I’m not at all trusting any model, I’m excited about the Feb potential (not Dec at all and not much for Jan though that could very well be transitioning):

 

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2016: much less E based Nino

In the E US, the mid-Oct ‘15 forecast mean CFSv2 for Feb ‘16 actually verified slightly too warm overall in the E US!

Verification of Feb ‘16 (vs 1981-2010):

 

-2024, much weaker and less E based Nino:

The mid-Oct ‘23 mean CFSv2 forecast for Feb ‘24 verified too cold NE but wasn’t too far off in the SE and was very close deep SE:

 

Verification of Feb ‘24 (vs 1991-2020):

 

 How will it do for Feb ‘27? We’ll see! Yes, although I’m not at all trusting any model, I’m excited about the Feb potential (not Dec at all and not much for Jan though that could very well be transitioning):

 

the models from four months ago missed the warmest october on record

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the models from four months ago missed the warmest october on record

no one's asked me buuut,   personally, confidence in any seasonal modeling is lower than even the usual eye-rolling when the model being use has "climate" baked into it's title and/or physical make-up.

[GaWx]

 Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO in Feb ‘27.

-These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024

 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

 

-These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010

Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

[forkyfork]

lol at using any year from before 2016