2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Can see where the MJO is heading (solid black loop). By mid month it’ll enter 6-7-8 and constructively interfere. This mid month period is when we should really watch whether we start to see a full blown N Pacific wintertime nino pattern show up on the ensembles. 

On a side note, i highly recommend this site (https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/) for MJO tracking this season because the RMM plots won’t be much help due to the sheer magnitude of the Nino signal overwhelming the RMM mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

You managed to inadvertently elicit one last sneak preview of my favorable window this winter before I go radio-silent to work.....WATCH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND KONA LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC CONTINUE TO GROW

[40/70 Benchmark]

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

[GaWx]

 The GEFS NAO prog continues to correct to more positive. Check out how much it has risen over the last 8 forecast days:

 

Oct. 13th fcast mean had it never getting >+1 and that on Oct. 15th with it later down to sub -0.8 for 6 days with it continuing through end of forecast period; It had Oct. 27th down at -0.9:

 

 Today’s forecast is so much more positive: it actually peaked way up at +1.73 on Oct 19th and with forecast now dipping only to -0.7 on Oct 22nd followed by a sharp rise to +0.8 on Oct 27th (vs the  Oct 13th run having it down at -0.9):

 Per @Stormchaserchuck1this solidly +NAO in Oct. is actually a good sign if one wants the chance for a -NAO domination in winter to increase. I’m just passing that along as it isn’t my own idea. Forecast models are suggesting a good chance of a -NAO in Feb, regardless. Before that will be tough imho due to at least solar but we’ll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

 

I think the mid season warming may end up more of a reflection event/CW.

[forkyfork]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

I recommend this brand.

[forkyfork]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I recommend this brand.

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I recommend this brand.

 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

 

And yet within days of an impending frozen event when a serious fyf Meteorologist enters the storm thread we grow quiet, in rapt attention, for the word…. Hammer not withstanding. As always ….

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

I'm still waiting on seeing your outlook verification from last year.

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm still waiting on seeing your outlook verification from last year.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

[GaWx]

It appears per models that due to a combo of a large Tahiti SLP rise/smaller Darwin fall and despite it being way down at -43 today, it should break the very long current -SOI streak and go positive by ~Oct 25th. That means that the current -SOI streak would end near 74 days.

[mitchnick]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

Anthony,

 Maybe this person saw this latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada:

 No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August! 
 
 Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other 10 day mean forecasts made in mid-Oct for other Febs back to the start of the CFSv2:

 

2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can:

 

2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom

‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can

’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can

’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can

’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can

’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can

’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can

’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can

’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can

’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can

’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can

’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can

—————————————

Analysis of above: 

-Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases!

-The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27.

-BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE!

-Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16).

——————

 In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.

Congrats Larry! This guy gave you a shout out for this post on his wx video. Go to 4:30 for it.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Congrats Larry! This guy gave you a shout out for this post on his wx video. Go to 4:30 for it.

 

Another good video I was watching last night.