2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Starting to see +12C subsurface anomalies as Nino 3.4 reaches +3.4 for the first time.

 

 

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal latest snowfall change this run vs last courtesy Weather Will in the MA forum. No complaints from me!

 

[forkyfork]

closing in on +3.5

 

[so_whats_happening]

Cold pool near -3 and seems to be on the move recently.

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

closing in on +3.5

 

In light of the Euro seasonal snowfall map with the change from last month, higher the better 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see +12C subsurface anomalies as Nino 3.4 reaches +3.4 for the first time.

 

 
This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23:

 

 Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:

 

[LakePaste25]

Still waiting on that big Nino 1+2 drop modeled by the CFSv2. Any day now. 

 

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In light of the Euro seasonal snowfall map with the change from last month, higher the better 

nobody with any wx skill looks at those maps

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Still waiting on that big Nino 1+2 drop modeled by the CFSv2. Any day now. 

 

The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23:

 

 Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:

 

is roni going to lower the amount of latent heat that gets released into the climate system and trapped by carbon dioxide? is roni going to keep an eastward displaced north pacific low from flooding the continent with maritime airmasses all winter?

[LakePaste25]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.

I won’t count chickens before they hatch, but *at least so far* the Euro has been the most correct with how E based it is compared to the others.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23:

 

 Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:

 

RONI is not meant to be used for the absolute intensity of this event. It’s more about gradients and storm tracks. With something this historic, it’s the absolute temperatures and water vapor increase that matter which is better reflected by ONI.

 

[GaWx]

 Any comments about what this graph implies?

 Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any comments about what this graph implies?

 Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

ERA5 is not a prognosis, it’s a reanalysis of the daily mean averaged out over several decades (i think it starts 1940 but someone can correct me here). The black is the actual forecast ensemble mean. So it’s currently forecast to go below the historical mean. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

ERA5 is not a prognosis, it’s a reanalysis of the daily mean averaged out over several decades (i think it starts 1940 but someone can correct me here). The black is the actual forecast ensemble mean 

Thanks. But with ERA5 not being a prognosis, why is its blue line going all of the way til 5/1/27?