2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro.  Very 97-98 like 

Yep nice stj train. How do you know it shows 10 inches ? People need to stop making statements. 1 storm can do wonders.

[GaWx]

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

what does this have to do with el nino

[GaWx]

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

 

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

[LakePaste25]

Just now, GaWx said:

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <40m

 

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it.

I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino".

Aug:

 

Sept:

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino".

Aug:

 

Sept:

 

 

 

 

Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain.

That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain.

That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

Boinnnnnng!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Boinnnnnng!!!

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

Shrivel!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecast -NAO is def. more severe this year than 2023, but it was biased too negatively in 2023, and I suspect that is again the case. That being said, this reality is certainly not prohibitive to some intervals of blocking, I just think the model is overdoing it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I will say is that with somewhat less MC influence, perhaps it may be a it easier to pop a -NAO during the coming season, but still a lot working against it in the grand scheme of things....solar cycle is about as hostile as it gets with geomagnetic energy peaking a couple of years removed from solar max.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

The Euro's 23/24 winter forecast just stunk. As I  previously posted, the Cfs2 was already showing a warm winter by mid September. This year, the difference between the 2 right now is not that great and they are similar to the Cansips, Jamstec, and NMME. So it's going to be a massive failure by all modeling or a consensus success. The only caveat being there's still time for modeling to change to something better or worse depending on one's perspective .

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO:

JFM ’24: strong -NAO

JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27.

 

 However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO:

JFM ’24: strong -NAO

JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27.

 

 However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24.

It kinds of seems like the same forecast from 2023, just amplified, which doesn't engender a ton of confidence from me.

[GaWx]

 The worst E US Sept heatwave on record was during El Niño (1925).