2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro.  Very 97-98 like 

Yep nice stj train. How do you know it shows 10 inches ? People need to stop making statements. 1 storm can do wonders.

[GaWx]

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

what does this have to do with el nino

[GaWx]

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

 

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

[LakePaste25]

Just now, GaWx said:

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <40m

 

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.