2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. 

I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway. 

[raindancewx]

Locally, almost everything I'm seeing implies a colder winter than 2023-24.

For Nov-Jan, a colder Atlantic (AMO) is correlated almost everywhere with colder US temps. That reverses later, but its important early on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI
 

Absolutely agreed with this....the warmth in 1.2 renders it a moot point in terms of the seasonal mean, however the warmth in the rest leave the door open for some volatility IMHO. Regardless, it will be warm overall.

[raindancewx]

I found some of my old research and updated it for the last few years (2021-2025). It looks like the formulas still work for predicting precipitation locally in El Nino / La Nina seasonally, and even month by month.

El Nino DJF precip locally can be predicted at very high confidence (90%, within 0.8" of output, 75% odds of within 0.59") using the Sept high, Nov precipitation, and wet days in July-Sept (+1/2 of wet Jun days).

Formula is: =(B13*-0.04239*B13)-(0.30999*B13*C13)-(0.018527*B13*D13)+(0.01853*C13*C13)-(0.2244*C13*D13)+(0.00347*D13*D13)+(7.277*B13)+(28.465*C13)+(1.6066*D13)-(311.76)

Where B is Sept high, C is Nov precip, D is Wet days.

DJF highs in El Ninos locally tend to match DJF ONI, July-Jun annual sunspots, and DJF ONIp, within ~2.3F or so 90% of years. Here is 2023-24 as an example:

I never was able to find an El Nino at that solar level / trajectory - 129.6 in the rising part of the cycle. The peak was 149.2 for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun). This is the only El Nino since 1931 one year from rising to the peak. 1957, 1968, 1979 are at the peak, not before.

Dec El	ONI	Sun	ONIp	DJF Tmax
1939	1.0	125.9	-1.0	49.8
1957	1.8	281.6	-0.2	50.5
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9
1994	1.0	36.9	0.1	54.4
Blend	1.6	129.8	-0.4	49.6
2023	1.9	129.6	-0.5	51.4

For 2026-27, there is probably no real way to use my method given what is forecast (ONI at +3.0C to +3.5C in DJF). But you can use solar (60-80?) and ONIp as anchors.

Dec El	ONI	Sun	ONIp	DJF Tmax
1965	1.4	37.1	-0.6	44.4
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9
1997	2.2	54.9	-0.5	47.1
2015	2.5	55.8	0.6	51.4
2023	1.9	129.6	-0.5	51.4
Blend	2.0	80.3	-0.3	47.9
2026	3.1	75	-0.4	47

Solar was 106.2 sunspots/month from July 2025-June 2026, and declining. Similar initial positions/trends (roughly: 86-126) were 1939-40 (126), 1950-51 (103), 1960-61 (117), 1971-72 (101), 1982-83 (129), 1992-93 (103), 2002-03 (131), 2014-15 (91). The following years imply ~72 sunspots/month for July 2026-Jun 2027.

If you use just the solar cycle positioning/tendency, you can see 1950-51 and 2002-03 as a blend is very similar to last year for temps -

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting  .30 within the outcome?

@bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality?

TIA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016

2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting  .30 within the outcome?

@bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality?

TIA.

0.54. 50% chance of DJFM NAO being within +0.54. I devised that in 2005, and since then have been 11-10 vs the std, so about where was originally estimated. 16-5 at getting the sign, + or - correct. 

Problem this year is I'm not going to be able to make exact numbers without Daily Climate composites. Maybe someone has a site of SSTAs for the whole period May-Sept?

[raindancewx]

I did find a site that has monthly AMO readings still. So we can do direct analogs for that again. At some point I'll compare it to the other AMO data and convert the recent winters to the old scale I have data setup for. The Atlantic is the coldest it has been in an El Nino since the 2010s - that's good for early season cold and storms diving further south generally than 2023-24. The 2018-19 El Nino actually had the AMO stay pretty low (near neutral) throughout winter/spring, and if you remember we had some storms in March powerful enough to set all-time low-pressure records in the interior West/Plains in that Spring. Was a fun pattern. In modern times, 2002-03, 2009-10 had the coldest AMO for El Nino. 

Atlantic is roughly a blend of 2015/2023, or 2018/2023 right now.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat

2026      4      0.64
2026      5      0.70
2026      6      0.67

2023      4      0.94
2023      5      1.07
2023      6      1.27

2018      4      0.37
2018      5      0.33
2018      6      0.25

2015      4      0.29
2015      5      0.41
2015      6      0.40

2009      4      0.09
2009      5      0.11
2009      6      0.36

PDO is roughly a blend of 2015/2023 -

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.sstens.data

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html

Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post 

I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! 

The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post 

I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! 

The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO. 

Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?

You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps

Oh, I was speaking specifically of SSW....I understand that in general, the PV is weaker during El Niño.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I did find a site that has monthly AMO readings still. So we can do direct analogs for that again. At some point I'll compare it to the other AMO data and convert the recent winters to the old scale I have data setup for. The Atlantic is the coldest it has been in an El Nino since the 2010s - that's good for early season cold and storms diving further south generally than 2023-24. The 2018-19 El Nino actually had the AMO stay pretty low (near neutral) throughout winter/spring, and if you remember we had some storms in March powerful enough to set all-time low-pressure records in the interior West/Plains in that Spring. Was a fun pattern. In modern times, 2002-03, 2009-10 had the coldest AMO for El Nino. 

Atlantic is roughly a blend of 2015/2023, or 2018/2023 right now.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat

2026      4      0.64
2026      5      0.70
2026      6      0.67

2023      4      0.94
2023      5      1.07
2023      6      1.27

2018      4      0.37
2018      5      0.33
2018      6      0.25

2015      4      0.29
2015      5      0.41
2015      6      0.40

2009      4      0.09
2009      5      0.11
2009      6      0.36

PDO is roughly a blend of 2015/2023 -

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.sstens.data

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder.

Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016

2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

 

 

-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter. 

Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder.

Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol

You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.

I can't believe how dry last Winter was in the STJ areas! I've been thinking maybe RONI should be -1.0 to -1.5 vs ONI. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol

You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too

I don't think AMO is directly tied to the polar domain, though....

Yea, I have gradually been expanding my purview since I started that blog in March 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong. 

I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ!

This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

Obviously, I understand that if you read through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July.

Anyway, I did address this within the narrative.

The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite.

 

All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.

[raindancewx]

So the new AMO data is not de-trended like the old AMO data I used. If you de-trend it for time/global warming, correlation (r-squared) is over 0.8 between the two data sets for Nov-Apr.

I also converted the PDO data back to the old Nate Mantua/JISAO methodology which ran about +0.5 more positive (2014-15 was +2.07 from Nov-Apr by that method, now shows as +1.59).

Converted to the old methodology, where PDO was +2.07 and not +1.59 in 2014-15, I'd expect PDO in the -0.25 to +0.25 range for Nov-Apr (but it will show as -0.75 to -0.25 probably on the current methodology overall).

AMO looks like it will be in the +0.20 range. Even with the de-trending, AMO was bonkers in 2023-24, +0.60 for Nov-Apr, warmest ever v. baseline and long-term trends. Part of why the 1972-73 pattern held (warmest NE 1/4 US, much colder elsewhere) but not the actual temperature pattern that year (much hotter).

It's also really interesting seeing how weird the last solar cycle was in retrospect. We're quite similar to the down-slope of the cycle that peaked in 1968-1969 at 155 (we peaked at 149 in 2024-25).

The QBO data stopped in Feb 2026. However, the six most similar years to 2025 for QBO, by objective absolute value measure are:

2014 then 1972 then 2021 then 1974 then 1979 then 1958.

The winters starting 2015, 1973, 2022, 1975, 1980, 1959 are all +QBO winters in the +0 to +10 range.

El Ninos in that QBO range are 1957, 1963, 1969, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2006, 2015, 2018.

The Jamstec believe it or not has the Modoki index reaching +0.95 or so for Dec-Feb, v. +0.5 forecast for Dec-Feb forecast in July 2023 for Dec 2023-Feb 2024. I think it will trend lower, but its probably recognizing (correctly) that this event will decay rapidly in late winter from east to west, with the warmth maybe peaking in Nino 3.4 in Nov/Dec/Jan and then retreating to Nino 4 in Jan-Mar before collapsing in Summer. I'll guess +0.65 for the Modoki index.

I lean toward something like this now that my old analog system is fully up to date. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty cold stretch in the East later in the winter, probably late-Feb to mid-Mar for about three weeks if I had to guess when you do briefly see pretty ideal Modoki conditions. I think Dec-Feb overall is pretty warm almost everywhere, especially North, even with a few intense, but brief cold snaps.

Winter	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	Sun Jul-Jun	ONI DJF(p)	Modoki	PDO N-A	Monsoon	QBO DJF	Weight
1963	0.8	-0.036	29.1	-0.4	0.48	-0.88	5.06	4.9	x1
1982	2.3	-0.156	129.2	0.0	-0.49	0.95	3.84	10.9	x3
1997	2.3	0.220	54.9	-0.4	-0.66	1.24	6.58	-1	x1
2004	0.5	0.222	55.3	0.3	0.48	0.47	4.06	0.3	x1
2015	2.6	0.211	55.8	0.6	0.32	1.70	5.02	9.2	x2
2018	0.9	0.049	5.5	-0.8	0.41	0.51	4.84	8.8	x2
Blend	1.75	0.05	64.96	-0.09	0.03	0.81	4.69	7.29	x10
Target	3.20	0.15	75.00	-0.40	0.65	0.30	3.67	5

Long-term, since Nino 3.4 is a stronger warm signal in the North and weaker in the south, the composite should actually be more extreme than depicted by the blend I used -

If you exaggerate the features of the winter to account for record setting warmth in Nino 3.4, I think you end up with something like this. Very warm in the North, still actually pretty snowy, and not really cold anywhere. I think we'll likely have a pretty cold December in the Southwest, and that's maybe the most extreme cold temperature month for the winter nationally.

Sort of a joke map - but my current rough idea.

Look at December - I think it will be warmer than this - by a lot in the warm areas and likely colder in the SW by quite a bit too.

Now look at the Jamstec and the composite. The east-based look is real and present. But it will likely be breaking down by mid Nov to mid Jan. I'm not warm enough for the Nino zones - you can't get a +3.0 to +3.5C in Nino 3.4 with the anomalies. But I essentially was able to validate that the Jamstec isn't crazy. It has a canonical +PNA - very warm NW/cool SE. I don't quite think we get that with the AMO / PDO as they are.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/24/2026 at 10:14 AM, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

Unfortunately starting from a record low in winter will have this happen. The area of 80N and even close to 70N has been near normal or below normal temp wise most of the summer thus far. This is what you want to see in a good retention year but again starting point always matters. If this holds into August we should continue to slide above that 2012 number and get more inline with recent years probably 6-8th lowest roughly.

Im honestly surprised more so we didn't take a massive hit this year but presume next year will likely start another leg down. Fingers are crossed it doesn't.

[snowman19]

It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength….



Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023:


 

@Stormchaserchuck1

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño.

This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time.

Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. 
 

July PNA during developing super El Niños 

2023.. +1.15

2015…+0.76

1997….+0.56

1982…+0.97

1972….-0.76

[snowman19]

Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….