2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

It makes perfect sense to me that if the essence of El Nino is anonymously warm water modulating the Hadley Cell via enhanced convective activity, then warming up the water to the west of ENSO is going to reduce it's ability to do so because the MC is going to rob the ENSO region of some of that convection....ie it's a competing force. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would like to see the ONI coupled at around 1.7 or lower, and I bet we would see a better winter independent of the Modoki index.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Chris, I’m curious. How is it possible to come up with even approximate geopotential hts for way back in 1877-8?

It is largely a huge guess and mostly filled in using a handful of data.  If it was a science paper for college using that, you'd probably fail. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It is largely a huge guess and mostly filled in using a handful of data.  If it was a science paper for college using that, you'd probably fail. 

Thanks. Do you have a link to the source for the map Chris posted?

[A-L-E-K]

time 2 torch

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

This is indicative of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) El Niño and Bjerknes feedback taking control:

[roardog]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is indicative of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) El Niño and Bjerknes feedback taking control:
 

Hmm. It's funny how you'll believe model output forecasting several months ahead for this but not for anything else. lol

[snowman19]

Just now, roardog said:

Hmm. It's funny how you'll believe model output forecasting several months ahead for this but not for anything else. lol

Ok Patrick Star lmfaooooo

[roardog]

The strong westerly wind burst is coming now. We'll see if snowman's triple cyclones develop and help to keep producing westerly wind bursts in the coming couple of months.

[snowman19]

@StormchaserChuck1 Here comes the -SOI….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up. 

[roardog]

29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up. 

It looks like there’s been lower pressures around Tahiti but it seems we’re missing the high pressure around Darwin which isn’t allowing the SOI to really tank.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 In 2023, the same BoM model also had it getting to +2.4 at the same time (Sept) as per snowman’s post at the bottom of this post. Here was that 4/8/23 run:

 

 But “it” back then was ONI, which like now was then ~0.5 higher than RONI. So, it implicitly was predicting RONI only at +1.9. Thus, the current BoM prog on an apples to apples basis is progging 0.5 warmer than what it had 3 years ago.

 But also keep in mind that the ‘23 BoM turned out to be significantly too warm for the ONI. In Sept, ONI verified to be only +1.64 meaning a large bust of +0.76! RONI was only +1.15. If this BoM run were to bust as badly to the top warm side, the Sept RONI would be at +1.64.

 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@StormchaserChuck1 Here comes the -SOI….
 

Yep El Nino on the way. Strength is yet to be determined.