2026-2027 El Nino

[mitchnick]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, but I think even the blizzard-zone would like to load the dice a bit more favorably with a somewhat weaker ENSO relative to that season.

Not that anyone should care what I think, I'm stillnot seeing west anomalies prevailing over forecasts periods thru June. Gfs and Cfs are now both showing (I understand the relationship between the models) and easterly anomaly over the next week that has intensified over the past few days as reflected on the 2 attachments. That should knock 3.4 temps down a bit again. Again, I'm not saying a mod or strong Niño isn't possible, but more that the Niña continues to put up a decent fight.

[GaWx]

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

I'd roll the dice with that.

[brooklynwx99]

hey, give me a loaded STJ and temps that aren't an abject torch and I'd like to see what happens now that we're in a paradigm of blockier winters. 2023-24 was cursed and I think people are scared about an outcome like that. I find it unlikely, there are much better analogs

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hey, give me a loaded STJ and temps that aren't an abject torch and I'd like to see what happens now that we're in a paradigm of blockier winters. 2023-24 was cursed and I think people are scared about an outcome like that. I find it unlikely, there are much better analogs

Agree

I loved the cold this past winter but its not common.  Give me alot of snow to rain or rain to snow events.  The normal here. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Winter is going to be mild...let's get that out of the way....but at least a basin-wide deal like 2015 allowed for a couple of wintry intervals, and maybe if it's a somewhat weaker version we can get away with a bit more. That's all I mean when I say "weaker"...I'm not trying to be one of those social medaiologists that are getting roasted by snowman on twitter.

Once we get near or above  +2.0° on ONI with near a 28.5C Nino 3.4 SST, a warmer winter pretty much becomes baked in since the early 1980s. Snowfall is highly dependent on whether we get decent blocking or not.

1982-1983 was one of the milder winters of that era but we had the great February 1983 snowstorm with the blocking.

The 1997-1998 was one of the warmest 1990s winters and we couldn’t really get decently positioned blocking. So the snowfall was disappointing as the Nino ridge build into the Northeast.

Fast forward to 2015-2016 and the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño produced the ridiculous +13.3 December which was warmer than most Novembers in the Northeast. But once we got into January and February we got the historic NYC snowstorm and a nice follow up event a few weeks later. Also the first below 0° reading in NYC on Valentine’s Day since 1994.

The Nino ridge near the Great Lakes during 2023-2024 was so overpowering that it was one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record for many. The one bright spot in February was the narrow band in NJ with the record STJ streak but it was part of a one week pattern which quickly shifted. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

That screams a Miller A pattern with the gulf open for business.☃️

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

That screams a Miller A pattern with the gulf open for business.☃️

I think we have to closely compare this with 2023-2024 and remain vigilant and mindful as to what the displacement of warmth in the Pacific basin denotes....may not be as simple as "modoki, disrobe". It won't be as bad as that year because the Pacific is changing, but I wouldn't lock in a full-fledged modoki yet, either.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

On the way to perhaps a healthy ~+1.7c RONI Modoki similar to 1957-8. Nice!

[bluewave]

On 3/30/2026 at 9:28 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet.

The other thing is that we are starting to see more of these record breaking 500mb ridges even when ENSO isn’t as overwhelming.

This winter was one of the rare weak La Niña winters like 1995-1996 with 500mb ridges over the Bering Sea, Baja California, and Greenland.

Notice how much more overpowering the 500mb ridges were this winter leading to the record warmth out West producing the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.  

 

 

[snowman19]

“Still looks like we have a chance for twin TCs in the West Pacific soon. Perhaps even triplets, with a second system in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless, the ongoing westerly wind burst (WWB) looks to be enhanced out there, further enhancing the downwelling Kelvin Wave that's growing. Also looks like weak trades will propagate east in the medium range, and we may start to see more substantial surface warming of the East-Central Pacific soon as the climate system evolves towards #ElNiño.”

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The other thing is that we are starting to see more of these record breaking 500mb ridges even when ENSO isn’t as overwhelming.

This winter was one of the rare weak La Niña winters like 1995-1996 with 500mb ridges over the Bering Sea, Baja California, and Greenland.

Notice how much more overpowering the 500mb ridges were this winter leading to the record warmth out West producing the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.  

 

 

Yea, 95 was a decent Pacific analog, but I didn't care for it in the polar domain.

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

“Still looks like we have a chance for twin TCs in the West Pacific soon. Perhaps even triplets, with a second system in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless, the ongoing westerly wind burst (WWB) looks to be enhanced out there, further enhancing the downwelling Kelvin Wave that's growing. Also looks like weak trades will propagate east in the medium range, and we may start to see more substantial surface warming of the East-Central Pacific soon as the climate system evolves towards #ElNiño.”

 

Many strong left side MJO in April/May didn’t go superstrong:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Many strong left side MJO in April/May didn’t go superstrong:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors  “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors  “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”

My point is that the correlation of strength of left side MJO in spring and later El Nino peak is low. It doesn’t tell us much. I’m thinking low end strong RONI best chance as of now. 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

The record WWBs got going back in January which is pretty early for an El Niño leading to speculation early on that this one has pretty good potential if follow up WWBs become established next few months to keep the ball rolling so to speak. 
 

 

[snowman19]

The record WWBs got going back in January which is pretty early for an El Niño leading to speculation early on that this one has pretty good potential if follow up WWBs become established next few months to keep the ball rolling so to speak. 
 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Once we get near or above  +2.0° on ONI with near a 28.5C Nino 3.4 SST, a warmer winter pretty much becomes baked in since the early 1980s. Snowfall is highly dependent on whether we get decent blocking or not.

1982-1983 was one of the milder winters of that era but we had the great February 1983 snowstorm with the blocking.

The 1997-1998 was one of the warmest 1990s winters and we couldn’t really get decently positioned blocking. So the snowfall was disappointing as the Nino ridge build into the Northeast.

Fast forward to 2015-2016 and the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño produced the ridiculous +13.3 December which was warmer than most Novembers in the Northeast. But once we got into January and February we got the historic NYC snowstorm and a nice follow up event a few weeks later. Also the first below 0° reading in NYC on Valentine’s Day since 1994.

The Nino ridge near the Great Lakes during 2023-2024 was so overpowering that it was one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record for many. The one bright spot in February was the narrow band in NJ with the record STJ streak but it was part of a one week pattern which quickly shifted. 

 

Yes, for the most part, but my area did get that unexpected whopper just prior to Xmas, on 12/23.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

My point is that the correlation of strength of left side MJO in spring and later El Nino peak is low. It doesn’t tell us much. I’m thinking low end strong RONI best chance as of now. 

I would agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Many strong left side MJO in April/May didn’t go superstrong:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A few Modoki in there...

[raindancewx]

One major difference for the upcoming El Nino is we've had far drier winters nationally than heading into 2023-24. The precip pattern for 2025-26 is a lot like 1985-86 and 1962-63.

Blend the precip-matches, with strong El Nino and -PDO El Ninos, warm by 1F, roll back one year, and you get a good match to last winter - although extremes are too dull.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

This is huge and it’s going to cause another massive WWB and very likely start “Bjerknes feedback”:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One major difference for the upcoming El Nino is we've had far drier winters nationally than heading into 2023-24. The precip pattern for 2025-26 is a lot like 1985-86 and 1962-63.nd the precip-matches, with strong El Nino and -PDO El Ninos, warm by 1F, roll back one year, and you get a good match to last winter - although extremes are too dull.

I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One major difference for the upcoming El Nino is we've had far drier winters nationally than heading into 2023-24. The precip pattern for 2025-26 is a lot like 1985-86 and 1962-63.

Blend the precip-matches, with strong El Nino and -PDO El Ninos, warm by 1F, roll back one year, and you get a good match to last winter - although extremes are too dull.

 

 

 

Have you considered the possibility that this next El Nino ends up BEING accompanied by a modest +PDO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1963-1964 and 1968-1969 were truly high-end winters around here.....1986-1987 was good, and 2015-2016 and 1972-1973 were bad. Goes along with my early hedge that anything sub-super El Nino will be good. I just can not fathom another extremely -PDO +ENSO like 1972-1973 and 2023-2024. I would be absolutely stunned if we see another one that extreme at this point. 2015-2016 is a valid concern, but I would be modestly surprised if this one gets that strong. Again, the largest risk is a 1991-1992/1994-1995/2006-2007 type of season that combined a modest -PDO with an extremely hostile polar domain. 1991-1992 was the most hostile, as the latter two at least offered a late window of opportunity.

[snowman19]

If these projections for the next few weeks are correct, we are going to see westerlies in the ENSO regions take over and “couple” (ocean-atmosphere) with Bjerknes feedback getting established